***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.6 14.6 116.4 68.6 57.4 3.7 7.3 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.3 13.1 12.2 108.8 66.2 55.1 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.8 17.2 14.3 118.8 69.5 58.2 6.0 10.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.1 13.7 14.1 107.9 66.1 52.4 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.5 15.5 15.6 118.2 69.3 56.5 5.7 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.0 13.0 12.8 112.6 67.2 52.1 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.5 12.1 108.7 66.2 54.9 4.0 7.9 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.2 20.0 16.1 122.7 70.7 57.6 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.5 14.9 113.2 67.8 54.7 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.9 12.4 15.5 117.9 69.3 56.9 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.2 14.6 14.4 113.1 67.6 54.6 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.1 13.7 14.1 116.5 68.7 53.8 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.5 13.8 14.3 117.3 68.9 53.6 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.2 20.8 17.2 126.8 71.8 59.5 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.0 12.8 12.2 100.1 64.2 50.5 3.2 7.3 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.7 14.3 118.9 69.4 54.5 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.3 11.6 101.4 63.7 54.2 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.7 12.4 16.8 123.1 70.8 58.7 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.9 14.5 12.7 113.4 67.6 56.3 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 16.2 17.4 22.2 128.4 72.4 59.6 5.1 9.0 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.0 14.9 113.3 67.8 56.0 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 12.4 12.3 105.8 65.2 55.6 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 13.2 14.3 122.7 70.5 59.2 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.6 14.9 16.0 122.3 70.5 58.7 4.4 8.1 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.1 17.9 17.0 118.5 69.3 58.7 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.4 11.9 14.4 117.5 68.8 55.5 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.5 15.6 15.5 116.7 68.7 57.9 4.6 8.7 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.8 13.1 109.1 66.8 52.8 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 21.2 18.6 124.9 71.3 59.3 6.5 11.4 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.7 14.2 12.8 113.2 67.6 56.2 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------