***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.0 9.4 10.8 100.0 62.2 47.0 3.2 6.3 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 9.0 9.3 97.3 62.0 44.6 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.4 13.6 11.1 104.8 64.4 48.4 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.0 15.8 12.7 112.9 67.3 50.9 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.9 15.4 13.2 114.3 67.6 51.6 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.6 13.3 12.8 120.1 69.6 53.7 4.7 7.9 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.9 9.0 95.2 61.4 44.6 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.5 19.3 14.0 111.8 66.8 51.1 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.5 12.6 13.8 113.8 67.5 51.7 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.2 14.4 14.5 114.5 67.7 51.7 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.1 13.8 13.1 115.5 68.0 51.3 5.2 8.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.8 15.3 12.8 114.6 67.8 51.4 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.3 15.4 13.3 116.6 68.5 53.3 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.2 17.0 14.7 111.0 66.6 48.9 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.4 12.8 11.8 110.6 67.2 48.3 3.5 7.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.9 13.0 12.7 115.7 68.2 52.1 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.1 9.4 9.4 97.4 62.8 45.1 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.1 12.6 15.1 112.0 66.9 51.5 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.3 10.1 9.8 99.9 62.8 45.3 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 13.8 17.0 101.2 63.1 50.7 5.5 9.6 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.8 13.6 12.7 111.5 66.7 51.2 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.6 9.7 95.8 62.0 45.1 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.0 11.1 11.2 105.9 64.8 47.1 4.1 7.3 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.6 14.9 13.8 112.0 66.9 50.5 4.5 8.6 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.2 12.6 12.5 105.7 64.4 49.9 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.7 13.3 12.7 111.4 67.0 52.5 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.3 10.3 11.3 100.1 62.3 47.5 3.3 6.7 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 4.2 13.5 12.3 115.4 68.4 51.0 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.2 19.2 15.7 107.7 65.4 51.1 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.4 9.7 9.6 97.2 61.8 45.0 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------