***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 3.9 4.5 10.8 95.5 61.2 52.5 1.8 3.2 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.3 9.8 99.6 62.9 52.6 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.6 10.9 96.2 61.4 51.7 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.8 12.9 105.2 65.0 54.6 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.2 7.2 12.5 99.3 62.6 53.2 2.8 4.9 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.0 10.1 89.8 58.9 49.7 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.5 5.5 9.7 103.1 64.5 54.4 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 6.6 8.4 14.2 106.9 65.4 54.9 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.5 5.1 12.7 96.1 61.2 52.2 1.8 3.6 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.6 6.8 13.5 99.4 62.5 53.3 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.8 12.0 99.3 62.5 51.9 1.7 3.7 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.9 12.1 101.5 63.5 53.0 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.8 10.9 91.2 59.3 50.3 1.9 4.0 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.2 12.6 91.1 59.1 50.0 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.9 13.1 112.6 68.1 54.8 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.7 10.9 94.6 60.7 50.7 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.7 9.4 101.4 63.9 53.6 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.4 6.3 14.0 98.6 62.1 53.5 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.6 10.0 97.1 61.8 51.2 2.2 4.0 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.6 9.3 19.7 111.7 66.9 57.1 2.3 4.9 9.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.8 11.8 94.5 60.5 51.9 2.0 4.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.0 9.8 97.9 62.5 52.8 2.3 4.1 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.9 10.5 93.6 60.2 49.7 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.3 12.2 93.3 60.3 51.2 2.8 4.8 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.3 11.7 93.1 59.9 52.1 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.7 11.6 97.6 62.4 53.0 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.8 10.8 92.7 59.7 51.5 1.7 3.4 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.4 5.5 12.2 106.1 65.4 53.6 1.8 3.4 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 7.9 9.5 15.3 100.7 62.9 54.3 3.2 6.3 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.4 5.2 10.2 100.0 63.1 52.8 1.6 3.3 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------