***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 35.5 36.4 45.4 101.0 58.3 52.8 21.9 31.2 41.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 36.3 36.2 39.3 99.3 57.5 51.7 24.0 32.2 41.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 46.1 48.3 45.7 103.2 59.8 54.0 33.1 42.2 52.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 45.4 48.3 51.8 105.5 61.4 55.5 31.1 40.9 51.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 48.7 51.1 52.9 105.7 61.3 55.8 35.9 44.7 54.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 43.2 44.6 46.4 102.9 59.6 53.1 29.9 38.8 48.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 38.4 38.5 38.7 99.5 57.7 51.9 24.7 33.7 44.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 60.2 62.7 56.8 106.7 61.9 55.6 44.8 54.9 65.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 36.3 37.6 52.9 104.4 60.4 55.2 26.0 32.9 40.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 43.7 45.1 55.5 104.2 60.3 54.8 32.4 40.1 48.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 44.5 46.3 52.0 105.4 61.1 55.0 33.2 40.9 48.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 44.6 46.6 51.3 105.8 61.4 54.8 30.8 39.8 49.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 47.0 48.8 51.4 103.5 59.9 53.9 33.2 42.7 52.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 55.5 56.5 55.0 102.4 59.1 52.5 41.3 50.9 61.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 42.4 49.2 50.8 110.8 64.8 57.7 24.3 36.2 50.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 42.0 43.8 49.9 104.6 60.7 54.2 28.8 37.5 47.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 37.5 37.6 38.2 99.2 57.8 52.5 24.6 33.3 43.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 39.2 39.9 57.1 103.0 59.4 53.7 28.6 35.6 43.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 38.3 38.7 41.0 100.6 58.3 52.2 25.8 34.2 43.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 51.1 53.1 72.5 105.6 61.1 55.2 35.5 45.6 56.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 41.7 43.8 50.2 103.8 60.0 54.9 29.6 38.1 47.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 36.6 36.4 40.1 98.8 57.4 52.5 24.4 32.5 41.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 34.8 36.7 45.0 103.7 60.2 53.7 24.6 31.8 39.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 47.4 48.3 52.5 102.8 59.4 53.2 36.0 43.7 52.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 45.0 46.6 51.8 102.0 58.7 53.7 29.1 40.1 52.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 40.3 43.2 50.4 105.4 61.3 55.1 27.0 36.1 46.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 41.3 41.5 47.0 99.7 57.3 52.2 25.9 36.4 48.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 40.7 44.6 50.0 108.6 63.3 56.6 26.8 36.0 46.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 49.4 66.7 61.3 102.9 59.3 53.8 50.3 60.5 71.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 36.7 36.8 40.7 100.0 57.9 52.0 23.5 32.2 42.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------