***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 4.5 3.5 2.6 -0.5 43.8 44.1 2.5 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 4.5 3.8 2.9 -0.3 46.2 46.4 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.4 4.9 2.8 -0.8 40.5 41.1 4.0 5.9 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 1.3 -0.2 -0.2 -1.0 38.8 39.5 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.0 3.2 0.7 -1.5 32.2 33.4 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 1.5 1.3 -1.6 -2.8 18.8 20.6 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 4.2 3.5 2.8 -0.3 46.1 46.3 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 -3.5 -3.8 -1.4 -3.2 16.8 19.0 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.5 4.2 1.8 -1.2 35.8 36.9 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 2.3 2.2 -0.3 -2.6 23.9 25.5 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.9 3.1 0.8 -1.8 28.9 30.3 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 2.3 2.0 -0.5 -2.6 20.0 22.2 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 1.6 1.4 -0.2 -2.9 18.6 20.3 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.1 4.3 1.9 -1.6 32.9 34.2 4.3 6.2 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 4.0 4.0 2.6 0.2 51.9 51.8 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 2.8 2.9 -0.1 -2.2 24.7 26.2 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.3 3.3 2.7 -0.4 44.9 45.2 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 0.5 0.5 -0.9 -3.0 20.4 22.1 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 5.3 4.4 3.0 -0.4 45.8 46.0 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 -2.0 -3.0 -3.1 -4.2 11.5 13.4 0.2 2.1 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.3 4.1 2.5 -1.1 36.4 37.3 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.8 3.9 3.0 -0.4 45.6 45.9 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 5.2 4.2 3.0 -0.5 44.8 45.1 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.4 3.7 1.6 -1.9 30.0 31.5 4.0 5.9 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.8 3.2 1.5 -1.0 37.7 38.3 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 1.5 1.3 -1.1 -2.7 18.7 20.9 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.1 4.4 2.1 -0.8 39.6 40.1 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.2 3.8 0.8 -0.9 39.9 40.6 3.1 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -3.4 17.7 19.5 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 4.6 3.9 2.9 -0.3 46.1 46.3 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------