***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.5 5.9 8.4 64.0 48.4 41.9 3.7 6.1 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.6 6.6 56.7 44.8 39.1 4.2 6.3 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.5 8.3 8.8 67.1 49.3 42.7 5.1 8.4 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.2 11.0 11.9 77.9 54.5 44.9 6.1 9.8 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.6 15.1 96.2 61.2 51.6 6.2 10.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.6 12.8 12.8 92.3 59.7 49.7 6.6 10.2 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.2 6.4 56.2 44.7 39.2 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.0 17.5 16.3 101.7 63.0 52.6 8.9 13.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.6 13.0 89.1 58.1 49.1 4.2 6.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.3 17.3 105.8 64.5 54.6 5.2 8.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.4 15.4 100.2 62.6 51.6 5.4 9.0 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.3 13.5 93.3 59.9 49.0 6.3 9.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.4 16.5 98.7 62.0 52.0 7.1 11.0 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.3 12.7 78.7 54.8 47.9 6.5 10.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.6 7.5 8.5 61.2 49.7 36.5 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.0 14.2 93.0 60.1 49.7 6.5 9.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.2 6.3 59.2 46.7 40.7 4.1 6.8 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 10.4 16.9 102.4 63.4 54.6 4.3 7.4 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.6 5.1 6.9 58.4 45.6 39.9 3.3 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.8 17.9 95.9 60.9 52.7 5.9 9.2 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.1 10.8 76.3 53.0 45.3 4.9 8.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.7 6.7 59.2 46.3 40.8 3.9 6.3 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.2 5.3 7.9 62.1 47.4 41.6 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.5 13.3 87.6 58.0 49.9 4.6 8.2 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.3 12.5 80.0 55.4 48.2 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.6 12.3 12.8 91.3 59.0 48.3 6.9 10.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.8 8.1 9.7 69.6 50.8 44.1 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.5 9.0 10.8 76.2 54.6 42.5 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 17.6 16.9 98.9 62.1 53.8 7.5 12.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.0 5.8 7.0 59.1 45.6 39.6 4.0 6.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------