***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 2.8 4.5 5.3 43.6 37.1 29.5 3.7 7.5 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 3.9 6.0 4.7 44.8 38.3 29.9 4.9 8.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 5.2 8.1 5.8 50.0 40.8 32.1 6.2 10.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 3.8 5.6 5.5 44.2 35.3 27.3 5.0 9.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 4.2 5.8 5.3 43.5 35.4 26.7 5.3 9.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 3.1 5.0 5.6 50.3 38.6 29.5 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 3.3 4.8 4.2 40.7 36.4 26.9 4.2 8.3 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 5.1 7.2 5.6 45.0 35.1 25.5 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 3.1 4.6 5.9 47.9 38.2 29.1 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 2.9 4.3 5.5 45.3 36.2 26.3 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 4.1 5.8 5.6 46.9 36.9 28.1 5.0 8.8 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.4 4.7 5.4 46.8 35.8 26.2 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 2.9 4.4 5.3 45.1 36.4 27.0 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 5.1 8.7 7.3 54.3 42.4 32.1 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 2.5 3.7 4.2 36.5 34.3 24.9 3.4 7.2 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 2.8 4.1 5.1 44.1 35.2 26.4 3.7 7.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.7 5.0 4.6 44.9 38.1 30.1 4.0 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 3.3 5.3 6.8 53.0 40.3 30.3 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 3.6 5.7 4.7 43.9 37.5 28.9 4.7 8.8 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 3.8 4.8 6.3 39.8 31.6 23.0 5.0 9.1 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 3.2 5.4 6.1 49.3 39.4 30.8 4.1 7.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 4.1 6.2 5.0 46.4 39.0 29.8 5.0 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 3.3 4.9 4.8 42.2 36.0 26.8 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.2 6.9 6.8 53.9 41.5 31.2 5.0 9.1 14.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 3.8 5.7 6.0 44.0 35.9 27.7 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 2.4 4.0 5.9 50.6 38.0 28.3 3.3 6.1 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 3.4 5.2 5.7 44.1 36.9 28.9 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 2.9 4.3 4.6 40.4 34.0 24.8 4.1 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 5.8 9.1 7.7 52.6 39.3 30.2 7.3 12.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 3.6 5.5 4.8 44.3 38.2 29.1 4.5 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------