***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.7 6.8 8.0 79.4 55.1 39.0 2.8 5.7 9.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.6 7.8 8.4 93.6 61.4 41.6 2.8 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.9 9.0 7.5 76.6 53.4 39.0 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 8.1 6.9 62.2 47.5 37.0 5.1 8.7 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.4 7.7 7.0 62.3 45.7 35.3 5.0 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 4.0 8.1 7.6 72.6 52.1 38.3 4.6 7.7 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.9 8.9 8.3 94.0 61.5 39.9 3.4 6.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.3 11.2 8.1 67.2 48.0 35.6 7.0 11.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.6 6.7 8.1 67.8 48.4 37.8 4.0 7.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.6 6.8 8.1 65.9 46.7 35.7 4.0 7.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.2 7.4 7.2 66.0 47.5 36.7 4.6 7.9 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.1 7.9 7.5 69.3 49.5 37.0 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 4.2 8.2 7.7 68.7 48.5 36.2 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.2 10.3 9.2 74.3 51.2 39.5 5.6 9.9 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.2 6.3 6.6 62.5 50.3 37.0 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.8 7.2 66.8 48.3 37.0 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.7 8.3 8.6 97.1 62.7 41.5 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 2.7 5.8 8.9 69.3 47.7 36.3 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.3 8.0 8.0 88.3 58.9 41.2 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 3.7 8.0 11.3 70.0 49.3 34.9 4.2 8.2 13.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.0 7.5 7.5 68.5 49.4 38.0 4.3 7.7 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.5 7.6 8.9 97.1 62.5 43.2 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.6 7.6 79.0 54.5 39.6 3.9 6.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.8 8.1 8.4 72.1 50.1 38.5 4.3 8.0 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.8 7.8 8.4 72.1 51.2 37.8 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.6 7.2 7.3 69.2 50.4 37.4 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.3 7.8 8.6 79.4 54.6 38.7 3.7 6.8 11.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.1 6.3 60.6 47.6 36.5 3.5 6.6 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 4.6 10.1 10.1 72.0 49.3 36.9 5.3 10.4 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.0 8.0 8.1 89.0 59.3 40.3 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------