***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.3 3.3 8.5 83.0 55.3 40.9 1.3 2.7 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 1.6 4.1 6.8 78.4 53.0 38.4 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.2 7.8 77.6 52.5 39.8 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.1 5.0 9.6 93.2 59.7 42.9 2.2 3.8 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.7 9.7 90.8 58.0 43.9 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.6 8.6 88.3 57.1 46.0 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.4 3.7 6.7 79.0 53.1 37.7 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.5 9.8 87.8 56.4 45.2 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.9 10.1 88.5 56.7 44.7 1.6 3.1 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.1 5.0 10.3 87.0 55.9 45.1 2.0 4.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.5 9.4 93.4 59.3 46.4 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.9 8.8 90.7 58.0 46.3 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.8 9.5 92.1 58.3 46.7 1.7 3.5 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.8 9.5 74.9 50.9 41.7 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.9 5.5 9.0 91.5 60.6 40.4 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.2 9.2 94.0 59.3 46.5 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.8 4.6 6.9 83.4 55.8 39.5 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.8 10.5 80.9 53.1 44.3 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.2 7.0 76.1 52.1 38.6 2.0 3.9 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.9 12.2 77.4 51.8 42.3 2.1 4.5 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.4 9.4 85.9 55.6 42.1 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.9 7.3 79.9 54.7 38.8 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 1.4 3.2 7.4 73.8 51.1 39.6 1.4 3.0 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.3 9.3 77.6 51.8 42.6 2.1 4.0 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.7 10.4 89.7 57.9 41.9 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 4.8 4.6 8.8 90.7 58.6 47.2 1.9 3.6 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 1.6 4.2 9.3 85.6 56.3 41.3 1.8 3.4 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.8 8.9 93.1 60.1 43.1 2.0 3.5 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.1 11.1 79.8 52.6 44.1 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.4 3.5 6.9 76.8 52.0 37.9 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------