***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 18.8 19.8 30.2 66.3 29.9 30.4 21.4 30.3 40.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 19.2 21.3 26.5 66.7 30.2 30.9 22.7 31.1 40.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 29.5 30.6 29.9 67.2 30.1 30.9 32.1 41.1 51.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 27.3 30.4 33.9 69.1 33.0 32.6 30.4 39.9 50.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 33.6 36.5 37.1 74.6 35.6 35.7 35.2 43.9 53.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 26.7 30.6 34.6 76.6 37.6 37.0 28.4 36.9 46.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 19.6 21.2 25.6 65.5 28.9 30.1 23.5 32.8 43.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 40.8 45.2 39.8 77.3 36.3 37.1 43.5 53.3 63.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 24.3 25.6 37.1 73.8 34.2 35.0 25.3 32.3 39.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 30.3 33.5 41.2 78.4 37.2 37.9 31.7 39.4 47.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 31.0 34.5 37.6 78.0 38.1 38.1 32.3 39.7 47.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 26.8 30.4 35.1 75.7 35.8 36.4 29.0 38.1 48.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 30.6 34.0 39.1 78.0 37.4 37.9 31.6 40.8 51.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 38.5 39.8 38.7 70.8 31.0 32.9 40.9 50.7 61.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 19.7 22.5 28.3 61.8 31.3 29.7 23.6 35.0 49.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 26.6 29.2 35.7 75.3 36.1 36.5 27.6 36.2 45.7 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 18.9 22.7 26.5 69.4 33.7 33.2 22.2 31.4 41.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 26.8 29.2 43.2 78.2 36.4 37.4 27.7 35.1 42.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 21.7 23.0 26.7 65.2 28.9 29.9 25.0 33.4 43.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 31.3 33.5 47.7 72.5 31.7 33.5 34.3 43.7 53.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 27.8 28.3 33.8 69.8 31.9 32.5 28.9 37.4 46.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 19.6 22.7 27.9 69.1 33.1 33.0 22.7 31.4 41.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 21.0 21.2 27.7 63.3 26.8 28.6 23.8 31.2 39.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 33.6 35.6 37.8 73.4 33.4 34.5 35.4 43.0 51.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 26.6 29.3 37.3 71.0 33.4 33.1 28.9 39.9 52.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 23.2 27.5 34.8 75.8 36.0 36.2 26.0 34.8 44.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 23.1 24.8 33.3 68.6 31.5 31.5 25.6 36.0 47.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 23.2 26.2 30.6 67.3 33.0 32.2 26.2 35.4 45.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 46.1 49.5 45.8 77.3 35.5 36.6 48.0 58.5 69.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 19.5 20.9 26.9 65.8 29.1 30.0 22.7 31.5 41.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------