***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 4.7 3.6 2.4 -0.6 43.3 44.4 2.6 4.2 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 4.6 3.4 2.3 -0.8 41.0 42.0 2.6 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.5 4.8 2.6 -0.9 39.9 41.2 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -2.0 30.0 31.9 -0.8 0.7 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.7 3.9 1.1 -1.0 38.9 40.7 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.7 0.5 -0.8 41.5 43.0 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 4.3 3.3 2.4 -0.5 44.0 44.8 2.2 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.3 -1.4 1.1 -0.7 42.3 43.5 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.4 4.6 2.0 -0.9 40.3 41.8 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.0 1.4 -0.9 40.8 42.3 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.0 4.3 1.5 -1.0 39.4 41.4 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.4 1.2 -0.8 41.4 42.7 3.5 5.2 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.4 2.0 -0.5 44.3 45.4 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.1 2.6 -1.0 40.0 41.5 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.2 2.4 0.6 -1.8 32.1 33.6 2.5 3.7 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.8 1.1 -0.8 41.5 43.2 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 4.1 2.9 2.2 -0.7 41.0 42.0 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.6 2.6 1.6 -0.5 44.7 45.7 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 5.4 3.9 2.4 -0.9 40.3 41.4 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.0 50.5 50.7 0.1 1.9 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.1 4.4 2.6 -0.9 39.5 41.1 3.6 5.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 4.8 3.4 2.4 -0.8 39.8 40.7 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 5.2 3.8 2.5 -0.9 40.5 41.6 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.6 4.8 2.6 -0.9 41.0 42.3 3.8 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 4.7 3.7 1.8 -0.7 42.3 43.6 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.8 3.8 1.2 -0.5 44.9 45.5 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 6.0 5.0 2.4 -0.4 44.9 46.0 3.6 5.5 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.5 2.8 -0.4 -2.1 29.2 31.3 3.1 4.5 5.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.1 1.7 0.0 49.6 50.0 0.3 2.1 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 4.7 3.5 2.4 -0.7 42.2 43.1 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------