***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.0 2.2 -0.5 45.5 46.4 2.5 4.6 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.2 2.9 2.1 -0.5 45.4 46.6 1.2 3.4 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.1 2.4 -0.6 44.6 45.6 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 1.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.9 42.1 43.2 -1.4 0.5 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.6 0.4 -0.8 42.6 43.6 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.7 3.7 0.5 -0.4 46.9 47.9 2.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.8 2.5 2.1 -0.5 45.3 46.6 0.9 3.1 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.9 -0.1 0.8 -0.4 46.2 47.3 -1.3 0.3 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.2 4.4 1.4 -0.8 43.2 44.2 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.8 1.2 -0.5 45.3 46.3 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.4 3.8 0.5 -0.7 43.8 44.8 2.5 4.5 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.4 0.8 -0.5 45.6 46.7 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.1 0.5 -0.3 47.5 48.4 2.3 4.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.0 4.5 2.4 -0.4 46.5 47.3 2.5 5.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.2 -0.1 -0.9 41.9 43.4 2.0 4.2 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.4 0.3 -0.6 44.8 45.7 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.9 2.2 2.1 -0.7 43.3 44.6 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.2 1.7 -0.3 47.8 48.6 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.6 3.2 2.3 -0.5 45.6 46.7 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 50.9 51.8 -0.4 1.3 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.0 1.8 -0.7 43.5 44.5 2.7 4.8 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.5 2.7 2.2 -0.7 43.6 44.7 1.2 3.5 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.0 2.6 -0.5 45.9 46.8 1.3 3.5 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.6 5.1 2.2 -0.5 46.1 47.0 3.3 5.7 7.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.3 0.7 -0.6 45.0 45.8 1.9 3.9 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.3 0.7 -0.1 48.7 49.8 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.0 1.8 -0.5 45.7 46.6 2.4 4.5 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.8 3.6 -0.5 -0.9 41.8 43.1 2.3 4.8 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.5 1.4 -0.1 49.3 50.2 0.7 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.1 2.9 2.1 -0.5 45.9 47.1 1.2 3.4 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------