***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.3 5.6 8.1 66.4 48.6 36.2 3.5 5.9 8.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.9 6.2 6.6 59.5 45.8 34.4 4.3 6.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.7 8.7 8.8 70.3 50.0 37.2 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.1 15.2 15.5 112.6 67.3 49.8 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 6.8 12.3 11.5 79.6 53.7 40.1 7.0 11.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.9 11.5 11.1 85.5 57.1 44.4 6.0 9.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.8 6.3 6.4 58.8 45.9 34.1 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.6 16.5 13.6 91.7 58.9 44.6 9.0 13.6 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.9 7.6 10.9 80.3 53.9 40.0 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.4 9.8 12.7 81.4 53.8 41.5 5.5 8.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.5 11.0 12.2 82.5 55.3 41.2 5.7 9.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.4 11.3 12.5 92.4 59.6 43.6 5.8 9.1 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 6.2 11.5 12.8 81.5 54.6 42.0 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.2 10.5 9.9 63.0 45.3 35.9 7.9 11.5 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 16.4 15.3 123.2 71.6 51.2 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 5.3 10.3 12.1 83.6 56.3 42.3 5.6 8.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.5 5.9 6.1 58.4 46.2 34.6 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.3 7.3 12.3 78.0 51.9 40.8 4.2 7.0 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.0 7.0 60.7 45.8 35.0 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.5 10.9 15.1 88.5 57.6 44.8 6.4 9.4 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.5 8.6 10.1 76.5 52.5 38.7 4.8 8.0 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.8 5.9 6.5 57.5 45.4 34.8 4.0 6.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.5 5.9 7.8 63.1 46.7 35.7 4.0 6.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.9 8.5 10.7 72.7 49.7 38.8 5.1 8.5 12.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.3 8.4 9.6 67.6 48.6 36.7 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.5 11.6 12.4 99.9 62.9 46.1 5.7 8.7 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.8 7.1 7.8 61.1 46.0 34.8 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.5 14.0 14.8 115.6 68.5 50.5 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.5 14.1 13.0 81.0 53.7 42.2 8.5 12.9 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.6 6.5 7.2 63.4 47.7 35.5 4.1 6.9 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------