***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 4.8 9.4 7.0 68.2 47.9 32.8 5.6 10.0 16.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 4.5 8.1 5.3 59.4 43.8 31.2 5.6 9.7 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 5.9 11.1 7.6 71.8 49.6 33.5 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.5 9.4 8.4 70.3 50.2 36.5 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 4.4 9.9 9.8 78.5 52.4 36.1 5.2 9.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 3.2 7.0 8.5 67.2 47.5 35.3 4.2 7.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 3.6 6.6 5.1 58.1 43.3 31.1 4.3 8.5 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 5.4 11.3 9.7 73.7 50.4 33.5 6.6 11.2 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.3 7.6 9.9 79.5 52.8 35.7 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 3.3 8.5 10.4 81.3 54.0 35.4 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 4.0 9.1 9.6 75.4 51.2 35.2 5.0 8.9 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 3.8 7.9 8.7 69.8 48.3 33.8 4.8 8.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 3.1 7.3 9.5 71.0 49.0 34.7 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 6.7 14.8 10.5 79.3 52.6 36.8 8.1 13.7 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 3.4 7.7 7.2 65.2 50.4 37.5 3.6 7.5 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 3.0 7.3 9.3 74.3 50.9 36.7 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 3.3 5.7 4.5 50.3 39.7 28.5 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.4 8.5 11.0 83.4 54.9 37.1 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 5.0 9.1 5.9 63.3 45.9 32.7 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 3.8 8.7 11.3 71.8 49.2 33.3 4.7 8.9 14.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.3 8.4 8.7 73.3 49.8 33.5 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 4.1 7.1 4.8 52.2 41.4 29.4 5.3 9.2 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 4.9 8.9 7.1 69.0 48.1 34.6 5.7 9.3 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 5.7 12.1 10.1 81.9 53.9 36.7 6.7 10.9 16.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 4.4 9.1 8.8 71.2 49.1 34.4 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 3.1 5.7 8.2 61.0 43.1 31.5 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 4.4 8.6 7.6 68.4 47.6 33.2 5.0 9.3 15.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.5 7.9 8.1 70.6 51.3 37.9 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 5.8 13.2 11.3 79.8 52.4 35.8 7.1 12.3 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 4.2 7.9 5.8 63.1 45.6 31.9 5.0 9.1 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------