***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.4 9.2 86.4 58.7 43.2 2.1 4.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.2 5.4 7.9 85.2 58.0 41.6 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.6 9.0 85.0 57.6 43.9 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.3 9.6 84.9 57.8 44.0 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.6 9.7 10.5 86.2 57.7 45.3 4.7 7.9 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.8 9.4 82.5 56.7 45.3 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.2 7.8 88.4 59.5 41.9 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.4 12.7 10.9 84.1 57.2 44.6 6.3 10.5 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.1 11.4 87.6 58.1 46.4 3.7 6.4 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.8 11.4 84.6 57.0 45.2 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.0 10.1 85.0 57.5 45.1 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.6 9.8 83.9 57.0 45.0 3.1 6.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.8 9.8 80.9 55.6 44.5 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.1 11.6 11.8 89.4 58.5 46.8 6.3 9.6 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.5 8.9 86.5 60.2 44.1 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.9 9.5 82.5 56.7 44.9 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.2 6.2 8.0 90.1 60.5 41.8 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.5 12.2 87.0 57.4 46.2 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.9 8.1 84.2 57.3 42.2 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.8 14.6 86.3 57.8 44.8 4.0 7.5 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.8 8.4 10.5 88.3 58.4 45.5 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.2 6.4 8.3 89.6 60.3 42.5 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.7 8.8 85.5 57.3 44.2 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.7 9.6 11.2 89.4 58.5 46.9 4.6 7.8 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.8 8.8 10.5 87.7 58.7 44.2 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.2 9.7 86.3 58.4 46.1 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.8 9.7 87.5 58.7 43.2 3.1 5.3 8.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.1 9.0 84.8 58.3 44.4 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 13.6 13.1 87.4 57.7 46.2 6.7 11.1 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.6 8.0 84.9 57.8 41.8 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------