***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.6 4.5 8.9 88.8 59.1 41.9 1.4 3.2 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 1.7 4.4 6.8 78.0 54.1 38.2 1.9 3.7 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.2 8.5 84.2 56.9 40.8 2.0 4.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.3 6.3 10.8 102.3 64.1 47.5 2.3 4.2 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.2 6.8 11.5 100.4 63.0 46.6 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 1.6 5.3 10.6 100.8 63.2 48.5 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.4 3.8 6.6 77.2 53.5 37.2 1.6 3.3 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 2.7 8.7 12.1 103.8 63.7 45.8 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 1.7 4.7 11.8 97.1 61.4 45.1 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.1 6.6 12.2 98.9 61.7 45.1 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 1.6 5.4 11.0 100.6 62.7 46.2 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.6 5.5 10.9 102.4 63.4 46.1 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.7 5.1 11.0 94.9 60.5 46.2 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.0 11.0 86.6 56.9 42.9 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.6 10.0 102.5 65.0 47.3 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 1.7 5.4 10.6 98.1 61.9 46.7 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.2 6.7 76.7 53.6 38.6 2.1 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.3 12.3 94.4 59.8 43.8 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.9 4.6 7.2 79.0 54.4 39.3 1.9 3.9 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 2.5 8.3 15.5 101.7 62.8 44.9 2.4 5.1 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.9 5.5 10.7 94.2 60.7 44.0 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.0 4.6 7.2 78.5 54.3 39.8 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.9 8.0 80.5 54.6 40.9 1.5 3.2 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 1.9 5.0 10.6 88.4 57.7 42.7 1.8 3.7 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.9 11.1 97.7 62.5 45.1 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 1.5 4.5 10.0 94.8 61.3 46.0 1.7 3.1 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.0 5.8 9.7 93.0 60.5 42.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.2 6.1 10.1 103.3 64.6 48.1 2.2 4.0 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.0 8.8 12.9 94.4 59.7 43.7 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.6 4.1 7.1 78.8 54.6 38.1 1.7 3.5 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------