***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 18.3 22.9 33.2 77.0 38.3 35.2 20.1 29.4 40.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 19.9 22.3 26.6 70.0 34.2 33.9 21.6 30.5 40.6 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 28.5 34.2 33.8 77.4 38.0 35.3 31.5 41.0 51.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 28.2 40.7 44.3 93.2 52.0 45.2 29.8 39.5 50.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 32.2 39.6 43.2 85.6 43.5 39.0 34.2 43.0 52.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 26.0 32.1 39.6 83.3 43.1 40.2 27.1 35.7 45.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 20.3 22.9 25.9 70.0 35.0 33.8 22.0 31.4 42.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 40.4 50.3 46.3 87.8 46.0 40.4 42.7 52.7 63.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 22.8 28.3 44.0 86.0 43.2 39.2 24.1 31.3 39.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 28.9 35.5 46.7 86.2 43.4 39.5 30.4 38.6 47.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 29.2 35.5 42.9 85.3 43.4 38.9 30.7 38.5 47.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 25.4 34.0 41.9 86.6 45.2 39.8 27.5 36.7 47.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 28.1 33.8 43.1 81.6 40.0 37.3 30.0 39.4 49.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 38.3 42.9 43.2 78.7 36.5 35.5 40.9 50.7 61.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 41.0 38.3 41.4 95.2 55.9 48.5 22.0 33.6 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 24.1 30.8 41.5 84.2 42.9 39.0 25.9 34.6 44.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 19.4 22.2 25.2 68.3 35.1 34.0 21.2 30.3 41.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 24.4 30.4 47.8 85.4 42.0 38.8 26.5 34.0 42.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 21.9 25.0 28.1 71.2 34.2 33.9 24.4 33.2 43.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 30.8 40.2 56.4 86.5 44.7 39.4 33.6 43.1 53.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 25.2 31.7 40.0 82.8 41.3 37.4 27.7 35.9 45.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 20.3 23.3 26.9 68.8 35.2 34.2 22.2 31.0 41.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 20.7 24.5 31.7 73.9 35.0 34.1 23.6 31.2 39.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 31.9 37.5 42.7 82.6 40.0 37.3 34.6 41.9 49.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 25.0 32.5 39.9 80.2 40.0 36.4 28.1 39.3 51.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 21.6 29.4 40.3 84.6 44.0 39.0 24.2 32.6 42.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 22.1 27.5 34.8 76.7 37.7 34.9 24.6 35.2 47.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 23.6 36.3 42.0 94.1 53.3 46.3 24.4 34.2 45.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 42.3 51.4 50.4 85.2 42.2 38.4 45.9 56.5 68.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 20.4 23.3 28.1 72.2 35.4 34.2 22.0 30.9 41.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------