***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 -2.1 -0.9 -0.7 1.5 63.5 62.2 -4.5 -2.5 -0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -1.2 -0.6 1.6 64.6 63.0 -4.5 -2.7 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 0.8 0.8 -0.8 1.7 66.3 64.8 -2.5 -0.8 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 -2.8 -2.1 -2.4 3.6 80.0 77.9 -7.2 -5.5 -3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 -0.7 -0.4 -2.5 3.1 75.6 73.9 -4.7 -3.0 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 -1.4 -1.0 -3.9 3.0 76.6 73.7 -5.4 -3.7 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 -2.2 -1.2 -0.6 1.6 64.0 62.4 -4.5 -2.7 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 -5.1 -4.9 -3.2 3.3 75.7 73.6 -8.8 -7.3 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 -0.1 0.0 -1.9 2.4 70.3 68.7 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 -0.8 -0.8 -2.8 2.8 72.1 70.3 -4.4 -2.8 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 -0.6 -0.3 -2.8 3.3 75.9 74.2 -4.7 -3.0 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 -1.3 -1.0 -2.9 3.2 75.6 73.8 -5.3 -3.6 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 -0.8 -0.6 -3.6 2.8 73.1 71.2 -4.6 -2.9 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 0.1 0.1 -1.7 2.7 71.4 69.8 -3.5 -1.9 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 -0.1 0.5 -1.9 3.3 78.8 76.5 -4.3 -2.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 0.1 0.4 -3.3 3.3 76.1 74.3 -3.7 -2.2 -0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 -2.4 -1.5 -0.5 1.6 64.0 62.2 -4.5 -2.9 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 -2.8 -2.9 -3.0 2.9 71.7 70.0 -6.6 -5.0 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 -0.9 -1.0 -0.7 1.7 65.6 63.9 -4.5 -2.7 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -4.5 -4.2 -4.1 3.3 74.1 71.6 -9.7 -7.5 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 -0.8 -0.6 -1.2 2.0 68.0 66.4 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 1.6 64.6 62.9 -4.8 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 2.0 67.9 66.2 -4.7 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 -0.8 -0.8 -1.9 2.6 70.9 69.4 -4.6 -2.9 -1.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 -0.3 -0.1 -1.6 2.8 74.7 72.9 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 -1.0 -0.8 -3.3 3.0 73.8 72.0 -4.9 -3.2 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 -0.1 0.0 -1.2 2.0 67.3 65.9 -3.9 -2.0 -0.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 -1.2 -0.6 -2.4 3.5 78.8 76.7 -5.2 -3.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 -2.7 -2.6 -3.3 3.2 73.1 71.2 -6.6 -5.0 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 -2.0 -0.9 -0.6 1.6 64.4 62.9 -4.3 -2.5 -0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------