***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 4.5 5.6 4.2 1.4 64.2 62.1 1.7 3.8 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.0 5.2 4.2 1.6 64.7 62.7 1.5 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.8 6.9 4.3 1.4 63.6 61.6 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.9 3.5 2.9 2.4 73.2 70.3 -1.2 0.7 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.2 3.2 2.0 69.4 66.5 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 6.7 6.8 2.8 2.2 71.4 67.6 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 5.2 4.9 4.1 1.6 64.8 62.9 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 0.8 1.1 3.3 2.3 73.0 69.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 7.8 7.7 3.8 1.7 66.3 63.5 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 6.9 7.1 3.6 2.0 69.5 66.0 2.7 4.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.5 3.2 2.1 70.6 67.5 2.7 4.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 7.8 8.1 3.3 2.1 71.5 68.2 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.4 2.9 2.1 70.7 67.5 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.5 7.9 4.3 1.7 65.3 62.6 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 6.4 7.1 3.4 2.7 76.7 73.5 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.9 8.2 2.9 2.1 70.8 67.8 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 3.6 4.7 4.2 1.6 64.8 62.8 1.1 3.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 4.8 4.9 3.7 2.0 69.2 65.7 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.8 4.4 1.5 64.0 62.1 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 4.1 4.7 3.0 2.7 76.1 71.1 -0.6 1.4 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 7.2 7.0 4.0 1.5 65.0 62.6 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.4 5.4 4.3 1.5 63.8 61.9 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.6 4.5 1.5 63.6 61.6 1.8 3.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 8.3 8.1 4.1 1.6 65.5 62.7 3.4 5.9 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.8 3.3 1.9 69.5 66.8 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.5 6.7 2.8 2.1 72.2 68.6 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 7.3 7.2 3.8 1.6 66.4 64.1 2.8 5.0 7.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.6 8.2 3.1 2.5 73.7 70.7 2.8 5.0 7.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 4.3 4.6 3.5 2.3 72.0 68.0 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 5.5 5.2 4.3 1.5 64.4 62.5 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------