***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 6.9 8.0 5.6 3.1 76.9 72.6 1.6 4.0 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.1 7.4 5.6 3.3 77.5 73.6 1.2 3.4 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 7.8 9.1 5.8 3.2 77.1 72.8 2.3 4.8 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 3.4 4.7 3.7 3.5 79.6 75.3 -1.6 0.6 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 7.3 8.6 4.2 3.3 78.7 74.1 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.8 3.7 3.2 78.4 73.1 1.8 3.9 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.6 6.8 5.4 3.2 77.0 73.2 0.8 3.0 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 1.2 2.0 4.0 3.1 78.8 74.3 -2.1 -0.6 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 8.5 9.8 5.1 3.2 77.7 72.9 2.8 5.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 7.0 8.1 4.6 3.2 78.1 73.4 2.0 4.2 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 7.6 9.0 4.1 3.2 78.8 74.2 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 7.9 9.3 4.0 3.0 78.4 74.0 2.5 4.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 7.3 8.5 3.7 3.1 78.2 73.6 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 8.7 9.8 5.6 3.1 76.9 72.7 2.7 5.4 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 7.1 8.5 4.0 3.5 80.0 75.9 1.6 3.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 8.1 9.4 3.8 3.2 78.7 74.1 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 5.5 6.6 5.4 3.2 76.9 73.0 0.8 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 5.0 5.7 4.6 3.1 77.1 72.8 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 6.9 8.3 5.8 3.3 77.6 73.6 1.4 3.9 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 4.4 5.3 3.3 3.1 78.8 74.6 -0.6 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 7.8 9.1 5.4 3.2 77.6 72.9 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.9 5.6 3.2 77.1 73.0 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.4 7.6 6.0 3.3 77.7 73.4 1.3 3.6 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 9.0 10.1 5.4 3.1 76.8 72.4 3.3 5.9 8.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 6.2 7.4 4.3 3.3 78.6 74.2 1.3 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 6.4 7.3 3.5 3.0 78.2 73.9 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 7.5 8.7 5.0 3.2 77.3 73.1 2.0 4.5 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 8.1 9.5 3.9 3.5 79.6 75.2 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 5.3 6.3 4.1 3.1 77.6 73.5 0.3 2.5 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.1 7.4 5.6 3.3 77.3 73.4 1.0 3.3 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------