***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 6.6 7.2 4.8 3.1 75.3 72.1 2.5 4.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 5.8 6.5 4.9 3.3 76.1 73.1 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 7.2 7.8 5.0 3.1 75.6 72.4 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 3.1 4.0 2.9 3.3 78.4 74.8 -1.6 0.4 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 6.8 7.5 3.4 3.2 77.0 73.3 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 6.2 6.8 2.5 2.8 75.0 71.3 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 5.4 6.0 4.7 3.2 75.6 72.7 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 76.0 72.1 -1.4 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 7.9 8.6 4.1 3.1 75.8 72.1 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 6.6 7.2 3.5 2.9 75.5 71.7 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 6.9 7.6 3.3 3.1 76.9 73.2 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 7.4 8.1 3.2 2.9 76.1 72.3 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 6.6 7.2 2.7 2.8 74.9 71.4 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.6 4.6 3.1 75.2 71.7 2.6 5.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 7.3 8.3 3.2 3.4 79.6 75.8 2.1 4.3 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 7.3 8.0 2.9 3.0 76.5 72.9 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 5.4 6.0 4.8 3.3 76.3 73.3 1.0 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.3 4.7 3.4 2.8 74.1 70.5 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 6.2 7.0 5.1 3.3 76.2 73.2 1.6 3.7 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 3.3 3.8 1.8 2.7 74.4 70.5 -0.5 1.2 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 7.2 8.0 4.6 3.1 75.9 72.3 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 6.2 6.9 4.9 3.3 76.4 73.3 1.5 3.5 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 6.1 6.8 5.2 3.3 76.2 72.9 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 8.3 9.0 4.5 3.0 74.8 71.3 3.3 5.6 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 5.9 6.7 3.4 3.1 76.7 73.3 2.0 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.3 6.9 2.5 2.7 75.3 71.6 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 6.4 7.2 4.1 3.0 75.4 72.3 2.3 4.2 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 8.0 9.0 3.1 3.4 78.7 74.9 2.6 4.9 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 4.8 5.3 2.8 2.8 73.9 70.3 0.5 2.4 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 5.7 6.3 4.9 3.2 75.8 72.8 1.2 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------