***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 6.0 6.9 5.0 2.6 81.9 78.7 2.7 4.0 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 5.5 6.3 4.9 2.7 81.1 78.5 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 7.0 8.0 5.1 2.6 81.0 77.8 3.5 5.0 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 2.6 4.2 3.5 3.4 89.4 85.8 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 6.7 8.2 4.0 3.1 86.8 83.0 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 6.1 7.6 3.6 3.2 87.6 83.0 2.8 4.1 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 5.2 6.0 4.8 2.7 81.3 78.6 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 0.7 1.9 4.1 3.3 90.0 85.7 -1.5 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 7.7 9.1 4.8 3.0 85.9 81.7 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 6.6 8.2 4.5 3.2 87.7 83.4 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 7.0 8.7 4.1 3.1 88.1 84.2 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 7.3 9.0 4.1 3.1 88.6 84.5 3.6 5.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 6.7 8.2 3.8 3.0 87.0 82.9 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 7.7 8.9 5.2 2.8 83.0 79.5 3.9 5.4 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 6.4 8.8 4.3 3.7 92.3 88.9 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 7.4 9.0 3.8 3.1 87.5 83.6 3.7 5.2 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 5.1 5.9 4.8 2.7 81.6 79.0 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 4.4 5.6 4.5 3.2 87.2 83.0 1.6 2.8 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 6.1 6.9 5.1 2.7 80.8 78.0 2.5 4.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 3.4 5.3 3.6 3.6 91.2 86.6 0.2 1.5 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 7.0 8.2 5.0 2.8 83.6 79.8 3.5 5.0 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 5.9 6.6 4.9 2.7 80.8 78.0 2.3 3.7 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 5.8 6.6 5.2 2.7 80.8 77.8 2.4 3.8 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 8.0 9.2 5.1 2.8 83.6 79.8 4.1 5.7 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 5.7 6.9 4.1 3.0 86.4 82.9 2.4 3.7 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 6.0 7.4 3.6 3.1 88.3 84.2 3.0 4.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 6.8 7.9 4.6 2.8 83.5 80.2 3.2 4.6 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 7.3 9.3 4.0 3.5 90.1 86.5 3.2 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 4.0 5.6 4.2 3.3 88.8 84.6 0.9 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 5.5 6.3 5.0 2.7 81.0 78.2 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------