***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 2.8 2.7 3.5 34.9 21.5 18.5 4.5 7.8 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 2.3 2.6 3.0 33.1 24.3 18.3 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 3.3 3.2 3.8 36.9 21.0 18.2 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 3.4 3.4 3.8 33.1 22.9 19.1 5.1 8.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 3.7 3.6 4.5 36.8 22.1 19.7 5.4 8.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 3.1 3.2 4.5 36.4 24.3 21.3 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 2.5 2.5 3.0 33.1 24.6 18.7 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 4.9 4.8 4.8 35.7 22.2 19.6 7.1 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 2.4 2.4 5.2 41.1 24.4 21.5 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 2.9 3.0 5.3 39.3 23.2 20.5 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 3.5 3.5 4.4 38.1 23.6 20.5 4.9 8.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 3.8 3.6 4.2 36.0 23.1 20.2 5.4 8.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 3.2 3.0 4.3 35.3 21.7 20.1 4.9 8.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 3.9 3.8 5.0 38.4 22.4 18.9 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 2.3 2.8 3.7 34.9 28.6 21.2 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 2.5 2.4 4.2 37.1 23.1 20.6 3.8 6.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 2.4 2.9 3.0 32.4 26.7 18.9 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 2.6 2.6 5.7 38.6 21.5 19.7 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 2.7 2.9 3.2 33.8 22.7 17.5 4.3 7.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 3.1 2.7 5.6 31.8 18.9 17.6 5.1 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 2.9 2.7 4.6 40.7 23.6 21.0 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 2.0 2.4 3.1 31.7 23.7 16.8 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 2.4 2.3 3.6 35.4 21.2 17.1 3.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 3.4 3.6 5.0 39.4 22.8 19.8 5.3 8.8 13.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 3.2 2.8 3.7 30.6 18.8 16.8 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 2.8 2.5 3.7 31.7 20.7 18.7 4.1 6.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 2.5 2.2 3.5 31.5 19.8 17.1 4.4 7.9 12.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 3.1 3.5 3.9 35.9 26.3 21.0 4.4 7.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 3.6 3.2 5.7 35.7 20.4 18.7 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 2.3 2.2 3.1 33.5 22.4 17.8 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------