***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.0 8.4 78.8 55.4 42.6 2.3 4.2 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.0 8.6 83.3 57.5 41.6 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.5 8.7 80.3 54.7 40.9 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.5 8.2 71.2 50.6 38.9 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.3 7.0 9.1 76.4 52.3 40.5 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.9 9.0 79.6 55.5 43.5 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.5 6.3 8.6 85.1 58.9 43.1 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.5 9.2 9.6 74.5 52.4 40.2 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.6 5.8 9.7 77.4 52.5 41.0 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.5 10.2 78.2 53.0 40.8 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.4 6.0 8.9 79.6 54.4 41.0 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.7 6.6 8.2 74.7 53.2 40.2 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.0 7.3 8.9 79.7 55.9 43.4 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.8 9.6 10.7 80.4 53.9 39.9 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.2 6.9 64.1 49.9 37.6 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.3 8.4 78.7 55.1 42.0 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.3 6.0 8.4 83.0 57.4 41.2 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.6 5.8 11.1 77.2 51.6 39.6 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.1 6.8 8.7 82.8 56.7 41.2 3.3 5.7 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 3.5 7.5 12.7 73.5 51.0 39.7 3.6 7.3 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.6 9.0 77.1 52.6 40.8 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.6 8.8 82.1 56.8 41.2 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.3 6.9 9.0 81.6 55.4 40.5 3.5 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.7 7.5 10.1 78.3 52.7 39.4 3.9 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.7 6.6 9.1 73.9 52.3 41.4 3.6 6.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.1 6.1 8.4 75.9 54.5 41.1 2.1 5.0 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.0 9.1 78.3 55.2 43.2 2.9 5.1 8.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.3 5.1 7.7 70.3 51.5 39.0 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.9 8.8 11.9 75.5 51.1 39.4 4.2 8.4 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.1 8.6 82.8 57.4 42.2 2.7 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------