***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.6 9.4 105.7 64.2 52.0 1.2 2.7 4.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.6 5.4 9.2 111.4 67.3 53.9 1.5 2.9 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 1.8 5.7 9.9 110.4 66.1 52.3 1.5 3.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 5.5 6.2 10.8 103.2 63.2 49.4 2.4 4.3 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.9 11.1 105.7 63.8 51.0 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.5 11.3 102.5 62.8 51.2 1.4 2.8 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.5 4.3 8.7 105.4 65.2 53.1 1.1 2.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.2 12.4 108.9 65.4 54.3 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.7 11.4 106.5 63.8 51.6 1.5 2.6 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.9 12.6 110.1 65.4 53.7 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.7 10.7 108.0 64.6 52.5 1.4 2.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 3.5 4.1 10.6 106.7 64.6 53.5 1.3 2.5 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.9 11.2 108.6 65.2 53.9 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.6 13.3 121.4 70.0 55.4 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.7 9.9 97.1 62.6 47.5 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.4 10.3 106.4 64.2 52.0 1.7 3.3 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.9 9.0 112.1 67.9 54.1 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 5.2 6.4 14.0 113.0 66.8 55.0 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.6 5.9 9.7 116.1 68.7 54.0 1.4 3.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.3 15.9 108.0 65.5 54.5 1.9 3.7 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.7 10.3 103.0 62.5 50.2 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.8 10.3 123.4 71.1 55.7 1.6 3.3 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.3 5.6 10.9 121.0 70.0 54.1 1.0 2.4 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.3 6.3 12.6 115.2 67.7 54.3 2.2 3.8 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.3 5.4 11.5 111.1 65.9 53.3 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.8 11.1 110.1 66.2 54.3 1.4 2.5 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 4.4 5.5 10.7 110.6 65.9 54.2 1.4 3.1 5.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.7 4.4 10.2 99.7 62.6 48.3 1.5 2.9 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.2 15.1 114.5 67.5 55.9 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.4 4.8 9.2 110.4 66.7 53.6 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------