***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 13.0 10.5 22.3 53.5 17.4 20.9 17.7 26.5 37.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 14.8 14.3 21.9 56.2 22.7 24.5 19.0 27.6 37.8 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 21.6 19.1 23.6 55.6 18.2 21.9 27.4 37.0 47.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 21.6 17.6 24.3 52.1 15.9 20.9 27.0 36.6 47.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 24.8 19.2 26.1 54.4 14.1 20.4 29.3 38.2 48.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 18.9 15.0 25.7 56.1 16.9 22.1 22.9 32.0 42.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 15.5 13.8 21.4 55.5 22.2 24.2 19.1 28.5 39.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 32.8 26.3 28.0 55.7 14.2 21.3 38.9 49.8 61.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 16.5 12.5 27.7 56.4 15.5 21.0 20.0 27.4 35.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 22.0 17.0 29.5 57.4 15.0 21.5 26.0 34.4 43.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 22.3 18.5 25.2 56.5 15.8 22.1 26.9 34.9 43.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 18.4 13.4 24.1 54.9 14.6 21.4 23.2 33.1 44.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 21.5 17.0 25.4 56.1 15.6 21.6 26.2 35.3 45.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 29.1 26.2 30.4 59.2 18.7 22.9 35.1 45.5 57.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 12.8 9.1 21.7 49.6 16.7 20.8 18.1 29.3 43.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 18.9 14.5 24.0 55.5 15.0 21.5 23.4 32.1 41.9 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 14.5 14.1 21.3 56.1 23.9 25.1 18.4 27.6 38.7 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 18.5 13.2 32.2 57.4 14.2 20.9 22.2 30.4 39.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 16.8 16.2 22.7 57.0 22.3 24.2 21.5 30.4 41.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 25.2 18.7 35.0 53.8 13.1 19.8 30.1 39.5 50.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 19.7 16.1 25.3 55.0 15.9 20.4 24.2 32.5 41.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 15.6 15.8 23.3 57.7 24.4 25.4 20.0 29.1 39.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 16.9 15.9 24.6 57.9 20.9 23.5 21.3 29.1 37.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 26.6 23.2 29.0 57.8 16.7 21.9 30.7 38.1 46.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 20.4 15.6 25.7 52.5 15.5 19.7 25.5 35.3 46.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 17.3 13.0 23.9 53.8 14.8 21.4 21.6 30.1 39.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 16.5 13.4 24.5 53.4 17.5 20.8 21.6 31.5 42.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 14.9 11.1 23.1 51.9 15.8 21.1 20.0 29.9 41.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 35.2 27.4 33.8 56.6 13.8 20.5 40.8 52.2 64.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 15.2 14.0 22.0 55.6 21.3 23.7 19.5 28.1 38.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------