***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 0.6 3.6 3.0 4.7 94.5 92.7 -3.8 -2.2 -0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.6 3.5 2.8 4.7 93.9 91.6 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.3 4.5 2.7 4.3 91.8 90.0 -1.8 -0.3 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.2 -0.7 0.5 4.7 93.8 92.3 -7.1 -5.7 -4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.8 1.5 4.7 92.1 90.6 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -0.7 1.4 -1.1 4.6 91.2 90.1 -5.2 -3.6 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.6 3.6 2.9 4.8 94.1 91.7 -4.2 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 -4.9 -2.9 -0.7 4.6 90.7 88.9 -9.0 -7.5 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.1 1.0 4.5 90.6 89.5 -3.3 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 0.4 2.4 -0.3 4.6 90.1 88.4 -4.0 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 0.5 2.8 0.8 4.8 91.5 90.1 -4.3 -2.6 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 -0.2 2.4 0.3 4.9 92.0 90.2 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 0.2 2.6 0.1 4.5 91.2 89.6 -4.5 -2.7 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.0 0.9 4.2 91.2 89.1 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 -1.0 1.3 2.0 4.8 94.4 93.3 -4.4 -3.1 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 0.8 3.2 0.5 4.8 92.9 91.5 -3.3 -1.8 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.0 2.6 2.9 4.7 93.3 91.0 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 -1.6 0.3 -0.5 4.4 90.0 88.1 -6.0 -4.4 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.7 3.5 2.5 4.4 93.2 91.1 -3.9 -2.3 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 -3.2 -0.7 -1.3 4.6 89.5 87.1 -9.2 -7.0 -4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 1.0 3.3 2.2 4.3 91.7 90.0 -3.5 -1.8 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.7 2.9 4.5 93.1 90.7 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.6 2.0 4.1 92.2 90.4 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.0 0.8 4.1 90.4 88.5 -3.8 -2.3 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.7 2.6 4.8 94.9 93.1 -3.4 -2.1 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 0.0 2.9 0.2 4.9 92.9 91.5 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 1.8 5.3 2.9 4.7 94.3 92.0 -3.4 -1.5 0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -1.5 0.8 1.1 5.0 94.2 92.7 -5.0 -3.8 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 -1.9 0.0 -1.3 4.6 90.1 88.1 -6.3 -4.7 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.1 4.0 2.8 4.5 93.6 91.6 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------