***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 6.8 9.4 7.7 3.9 90.6 86.8 2.2 4.0 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 6.6 8.7 7.5 3.6 89.0 85.4 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 8.3 10.8 8.2 3.8 88.5 84.5 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 2.8 5.1 5.2 4.0 89.8 84.9 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 7.4 9.5 6.5 3.8 87.4 83.3 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 6.6 8.5 5.8 4.0 87.3 83.2 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 6.3 8.4 7.3 3.5 89.1 85.7 1.7 3.4 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 0.6 1.7 6.0 3.5 82.4 78.6 -2.5 -1.2 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 8.3 10.6 7.2 3.7 87.2 83.0 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 7.3 9.2 6.8 3.7 84.6 80.4 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 8.0 10.2 7.1 4.0 87.3 83.1 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 7.5 9.2 6.2 3.6 84.5 80.7 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 7.6 9.7 7.3 4.1 86.8 82.8 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 8.4 10.0 8.0 3.3 81.7 77.8 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 5.4 7.0 6.6 3.9 89.4 85.2 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 8.1 10.4 6.7 4.1 87.8 83.8 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 5.9 7.6 7.1 3.3 87.7 84.0 1.6 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 5.0 6.3 6.5 3.5 81.8 77.7 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 7.4 9.6 7.7 3.6 88.1 84.5 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 4.0 5.4 5.4 3.5 81.0 77.6 -0.2 1.7 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 7.9 10.3 8.1 3.8 88.2 83.8 3.2 5.2 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 6.5 8.1 7.4 3.1 86.1 82.4 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 6.9 8.7 7.7 3.5 86.7 82.9 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 8.4 10.3 7.8 3.4 83.4 79.1 3.4 5.6 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 6.3 8.5 7.1 3.9 90.6 86.0 2.4 4.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 6.3 7.6 5.5 3.4 83.5 80.9 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 8.1 10.6 7.3 3.7 89.7 85.7 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 6.4 8.2 6.2 4.1 89.0 84.2 2.9 4.3 5.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 3.9 5.4 6.1 3.5 81.9 78.0 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 6.7 8.8 7.6 3.7 89.0 85.5 2.0 3.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------