***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 6.0 5.6 5.1 1.5 64.2 62.2 1.7 3.8 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 3.9 4.8 5.0 1.2 61.8 60.3 1.5 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 5.8 6.4 5.3 1.1 60.3 58.8 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 1.3 1.8 2.1 0.9 59.4 57.4 -1.2 0.7 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.4 6.0 3.5 1.0 60.0 58.3 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.7 3.0 1.3 62.2 60.2 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 3.7 4.8 5.1 1.4 64.1 62.4 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -0.6 -0.6 2.8 0.4 54.3 53.6 -2.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.2 6.6 4.2 0.8 58.1 56.8 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.3 3.3 0.5 54.7 53.9 2.7 4.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.5 6.1 3.9 1.0 60.1 58.4 2.7 4.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.4 3.4 0.9 58.5 57.2 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.3 3.9 1.3 62.5 60.5 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.1 4.4 0.3 53.0 52.1 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.4 5.0 3.3 0.9 60.1 58.7 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.3 7.2 3.6 1.3 62.8 60.7 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 3.4 4.2 4.8 1.0 60.4 59.1 1.1 3.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.2 3.1 0.3 53.1 52.4 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 4.5 5.3 5.1 1.1 60.5 59.1 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.1 1.7 1.9 0.3 52.7 52.3 -0.6 1.4 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.2 4.9 0.9 59.0 57.5 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 4.1 4.7 4.8 0.8 58.2 57.0 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 4.6 5.0 5.1 0.9 58.8 57.4 1.8 3.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.6 4.4 0.5 54.9 53.8 3.4 5.9 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.2 4.9 4.0 1.2 62.0 60.1 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.8 3.4 1.4 64.4 62.4 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.9 4.8 1.5 64.7 62.6 2.8 5.0 7.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.6 6.1 2.7 0.9 58.6 57.0 2.8 5.0 7.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.3 2.7 0.4 53.3 52.7 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 4.0 5.0 5.1 1.4 63.1 61.5 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------