***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.3 4.2 0.9 59.2 57.8 1.6 4.0 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.9 4.7 4.2 0.9 59.4 58.3 1.2 3.4 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.0 4.5 0.8 58.1 56.9 2.3 4.8 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.6 56.5 54.9 -1.6 0.6 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.1 2.5 0.5 55.3 54.3 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.5 1.9 0.5 54.9 54.4 1.8 3.9 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 5.4 4.3 4.2 0.9 59.8 58.7 0.8 3.0 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.0 -0.5 2.1 0.2 51.6 52.0 -2.1 -0.6 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.9 3.2 0.4 54.1 53.5 2.8 5.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.5 2.6 0.2 52.1 52.3 2.0 4.2 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.3 2.6 0.5 55.2 54.5 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.6 2.5 0.4 54.5 54.2 2.5 4.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.1 2.1 0.5 55.7 55.2 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.5 3.6 0.1 50.8 51.1 2.7 5.4 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.0 2.3 0.7 57.6 55.9 1.6 3.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.7 2.2 0.6 55.7 54.9 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 5.4 4.1 4.2 0.8 58.9 58.0 0.8 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.5 2.6 0.0 49.7 50.5 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.2 4.4 0.9 58.7 57.6 1.4 3.9 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.3 1.3 1.1 -0.2 47.9 49.4 -0.6 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.7 3.9 0.6 55.9 55.0 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.0 4.9 4.2 0.7 57.7 56.9 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.6 4.5 4.6 0.7 57.0 56.0 1.3 3.6 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.1 3.5 0.2 51.8 52.0 3.3 5.9 8.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.4 2.7 0.7 57.5 56.0 1.3 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.7 2.1 0.6 57.0 56.3 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.7 3.7 0.8 58.5 57.1 2.0 4.5 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.7 1.7 0.5 55.5 54.3 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.4 2.3 2.1 -0.1 48.6 49.9 0.3 2.5 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 5.9 4.7 4.2 1.0 59.9 58.6 1.0 3.3 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------