***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 6.7 6.5 5.5 2.0 70.1 64.4 2.5 4.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 5.7 5.6 5.5 2.0 69.8 64.6 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 7.2 6.9 5.9 2.0 69.2 63.7 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.0 69.6 63.5 -1.6 0.4 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 6.7 6.4 3.9 1.9 67.9 62.6 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.1 5.8 3.2 1.7 66.7 61.9 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 5.3 5.3 5.5 2.1 70.8 65.5 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 2.1 1.7 3.5 1.6 66.3 61.7 -1.4 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 8.0 7.5 4.7 1.8 67.5 62.3 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 6.6 6.1 4.2 1.7 66.5 61.8 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 6.8 6.4 3.9 1.8 67.1 62.5 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 7.3 6.9 3.8 1.7 66.7 62.5 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.2 3.3 1.7 66.6 62.8 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 7.8 7.1 5.2 1.7 65.1 60.2 2.6 5.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.9 3.8 2.2 70.8 64.6 2.1 4.3 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.1 6.8 3.5 1.7 66.9 62.6 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.3 5.6 2.0 70.8 65.0 1.0 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 4.2 3.8 4.2 1.6 65.4 61.0 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 6.2 5.9 5.6 2.0 68.8 63.7 1.6 3.7 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.0 2.7 2.6 1.5 65.0 61.0 -0.5 1.2 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 7.3 7.0 5.4 2.0 69.1 63.4 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 6.1 5.9 5.6 1.9 69.2 63.5 1.5 3.5 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 6.0 5.6 6.0 1.9 67.7 62.6 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 8.2 7.7 5.1 1.7 66.1 61.2 3.3 5.6 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 6.0 5.9 4.1 2.0 69.9 63.8 2.0 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 6.4 6.1 3.2 1.7 68.3 64.1 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.5 5.0 2.0 69.9 64.2 2.3 4.2 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.6 7.5 3.3 2.1 69.1 63.5 2.6 4.9 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.2 4.2 3.7 1.6 65.1 61.0 0.5 2.4 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 5.6 5.5 5.4 2.0 69.8 64.6 1.2 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------