***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.5 5.6 2.1 78.2 73.2 2.7 4.0 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.8 5.6 1.9 76.3 71.8 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.3 6.0 1.9 75.7 71.0 3.5 5.0 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.0 2.6 2.9 1.9 75.6 70.6 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 6.1 6.7 4.1 1.8 74.4 69.5 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 5.6 6.3 3.5 1.9 76.2 71.2 2.8 4.1 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 4.9 5.6 5.5 2.0 77.7 73.1 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 0.2 0.4 3.6 1.4 70.3 65.9 -1.5 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.6 4.8 1.7 73.3 68.3 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 5.9 6.3 4.2 1.5 71.2 66.5 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 6.3 7.0 4.4 1.8 74.6 69.7 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 6.6 7.1 4.0 1.6 73.1 68.7 3.6 5.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 6.2 6.9 4.1 1.9 76.0 71.3 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.0 7.1 5.3 1.3 68.1 63.4 3.9 5.4 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.6 6.3 4.0 2.0 76.3 71.7 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 6.8 7.5 4.0 1.9 75.9 71.2 3.7 5.2 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 4.7 5.2 5.4 1.8 75.6 70.9 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.1 4.0 4.1 1.3 68.8 64.2 1.6 2.8 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 5.7 6.3 5.7 1.9 75.2 70.7 2.5 4.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 1.8 2.8 2.8 1.3 68.9 64.4 0.2 1.5 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 6.6 7.2 5.6 1.8 74.9 69.8 3.5 5.0 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.8 5.5 1.7 73.5 68.8 2.3 3.7 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.8 5.8 1.8 73.7 69.0 2.4 3.8 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 7.3 7.6 5.2 1.5 70.1 65.3 4.1 5.7 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 5.1 5.9 4.5 2.0 77.2 71.8 2.4 3.7 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 5.5 6.1 3.5 1.8 76.0 71.7 3.0 4.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 6.4 7.2 5.2 2.0 77.9 72.7 3.2 4.6 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 6.4 7.1 3.5 1.9 75.0 70.3 3.2 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.5 3.6 3.6 1.3 68.9 64.4 0.9 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.8 5.6 2.0 76.9 72.4 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------