***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.5 13.3 12.5 127.3 72.0 60.6 3.3 6.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 14.2 17.3 12.6 152.1 78.1 66.6 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.9 18.9 13.0 134.3 73.8 60.7 5.1 9.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.0 15.8 13.2 117.7 69.3 55.5 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.6 15.1 12.7 103.9 64.4 52.6 5.8 10.2 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.9 10.0 94.8 61.5 46.9 5.6 9.5 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 15.1 19.0 12.6 154.8 78.6 66.4 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.6 20.5 14.4 117.3 68.9 56.2 8.3 13.2 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.2 13.1 117.3 69.1 56.6 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.3 13.6 14.4 115.1 68.2 54.8 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 15.4 12.7 107.4 65.8 52.8 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.5 14.3 12.9 117.6 69.1 56.4 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.4 13.2 12.4 101.1 63.7 50.6 4.9 8.9 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 19.5 23.9 18.0 149.9 77.6 64.2 7.7 12.3 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 19.4 12.1 136.2 74.6 59.4 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.5 12.5 110.0 66.7 52.7 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 14.7 18.3 12.2 154.1 78.5 65.1 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 13.1 16.4 129.7 72.6 58.8 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.7 19.5 13.1 152.8 78.2 66.5 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.9 15.8 17.4 120.8 70.2 57.5 6.3 9.9 14.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.9 14.6 12.9 118.1 69.4 57.3 5.2 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 15.0 19.1 13.3 160.3 79.8 67.0 4.3 7.9 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 13.8 17.5 14.1 154.3 78.5 65.7 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.1 17.3 15.8 136.2 74.4 60.4 5.0 8.8 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.1 14.9 12.8 104.5 65.0 55.1 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.5 11.1 10.5 93.7 61.0 45.4 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.7 15.3 12.8 120.8 69.9 59.6 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.7 17.1 12.1 124.4 71.3 55.9 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 21.7 23.4 17.1 130.1 72.7 59.1 7.8 13.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 14.9 17.7 12.6 147.6 77.1 65.9 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------