***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.5 12.6 11.8 111.9 67.6 58.1 4.5 7.8 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.7 10.6 116.8 69.1 56.1 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.8 14.3 12.1 115.4 68.4 58.4 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 15.8 20.2 19.1 159.6 79.5 68.1 5.1 8.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.6 15.9 17.2 141.3 75.6 64.6 5.4 8.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.6 13.9 17.2 146.6 76.8 66.0 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.8 10.3 113.4 68.1 55.2 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 17.9 21.2 18.1 140.2 75.4 63.5 7.1 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 10.0 11.6 16.5 134.4 73.9 62.9 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.1 14.4 17.2 136.5 74.5 62.8 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 12.9 15.0 17.2 140.2 75.4 63.5 4.9 8.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 14.7 17.4 17.1 141.5 75.7 64.0 5.4 8.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 13.8 16.6 17.8 141.9 75.8 64.3 4.9 8.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.5 18.9 15.8 128.4 72.3 60.3 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 14.4 21.5 20.4 187.2 83.8 71.8 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 11.8 13.9 17.2 140.5 75.4 63.1 3.8 6.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.9 10.0 112.5 67.9 54.5 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.6 13.0 17.0 131.3 73.0 60.9 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.9 11.0 116.7 69.0 56.6 4.3 7.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 14.7 17.4 22.4 138.6 75.0 63.6 5.1 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.6 12.8 14.6 126.1 71.5 61.6 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.4 10.9 10.5 112.9 68.0 54.9 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.6 10.0 11.9 116.9 69.0 57.8 3.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.7 15.3 15.2 125.9 71.5 60.3 5.3 8.8 13.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.9 15.9 15.2 126.2 71.7 62.1 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 11.6 14.2 17.6 148.3 77.2 65.7 4.1 6.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.1 13.6 12.8 114.8 68.3 58.6 4.4 7.9 12.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 13.1 17.4 19.5 172.0 81.2 69.4 4.4 7.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 18.2 21.1 18.6 135.2 74.1 62.2 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.5 11.7 11.0 116.6 69.0 56.8 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------