***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.5 9.4 84.3 56.6 46.8 1.2 2.7 4.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.5 4.0 9.0 87.3 58.7 46.1 1.5 2.9 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.7 8.8 78.6 54.3 44.6 1.5 3.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.2 9.8 83.4 57.1 47.1 2.4 4.3 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.8 10.1 85.1 57.4 47.6 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.5 8.8 80.7 56.0 45.5 1.4 2.8 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.5 8.9 88.9 59.4 47.1 1.1 2.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.0 11.2 87.4 58.1 47.8 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.1 10.3 82.1 56.2 46.7 1.5 2.6 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.6 11.1 85.0 57.1 47.5 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.8 10.0 86.7 58.1 48.1 1.4 2.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.4 10.0 88.4 58.7 47.9 1.3 2.5 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 1.8 4.0 10.1 87.6 58.3 48.2 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.8 10.3 72.4 51.6 43.0 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.8 8.9 77.2 55.6 43.8 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 4.6 4.4 9.7 87.0 58.0 47.9 1.7 3.3 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.7 4.0 8.9 92.1 60.6 47.1 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.6 11.3 81.6 55.5 46.3 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.9 8.8 83.1 56.8 44.8 1.4 3.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.7 14.3 84.3 56.8 46.9 1.9 3.7 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.9 9.6 81.2 55.5 46.3 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.4 9.0 87.5 58.6 45.4 1.6 3.3 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.3 2.9 8.7 77.2 54.1 43.3 1.0 2.4 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.3 10.2 77.9 54.1 45.0 2.2 3.8 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.1 10.6 87.0 57.8 48.4 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.5 3.0 9.4 83.8 57.3 47.2 1.4 2.5 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.2 10.3 88.5 58.4 48.5 1.4 3.1 5.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.6 9.0 81.1 56.5 45.7 1.5 2.9 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.1 12.1 81.3 55.4 46.1 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.4 9.0 85.3 57.5 45.8 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------