***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 30.4 32.8 43.6 102.5 60.1 56.1 17.7 26.5 37.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 31.2 37.3 41.6 111.6 65.3 60.2 19.0 27.6 37.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 41.1 43.9 43.6 103.5 60.8 56.3 27.4 37.0 47.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 40.2 47.6 53.2 113.7 66.1 58.6 27.0 36.6 47.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 41.8 44.8 50.4 105.0 60.9 54.2 29.3 38.2 48.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 37.0 37.6 45.8 102.3 59.2 52.5 22.9 32.0 42.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 32.7 39.5 41.2 112.1 65.5 60.3 19.1 28.5 39.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 54.8 59.2 54.7 108.3 63.0 55.3 38.9 49.8 61.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 30.6 32.9 51.0 105.1 61.0 54.4 20.0 27.4 35.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 38.4 41.1 54.1 106.3 61.6 54.4 26.0 34.4 43.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 38.4 41.1 49.7 105.8 61.4 54.2 26.9 34.9 43.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 37.4 42.2 49.6 108.8 63.3 55.9 23.2 33.1 44.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 39.1 41.6 50.3 104.5 60.6 54.3 26.2 35.3 45.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 49.4 55.4 56.7 110.1 64.2 58.6 35.1 45.5 57.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 34.5 50.3 54.0 126.0 71.6 62.9 18.1 29.3 43.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 35.8 39.1 49.0 106.5 62.0 55.2 23.4 32.1 41.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 31.7 38.7 40.5 112.9 65.9 60.4 18.4 27.6 38.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 34.1 37.8 56.9 108.1 62.9 55.6 22.2 30.4 39.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 34.3 39.9 42.4 110.3 64.6 59.5 21.5 30.4 41.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 43.5 48.0 69.1 108.8 63.4 56.3 30.1 39.5 50.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 35.7 38.1 47.6 103.2 60.1 54.9 24.2 32.5 41.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 32.8 39.6 42.5 112.4 65.6 60.3 20.0 29.1 39.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 32.4 36.4 44.7 108.9 63.7 58.4 21.3 29.1 37.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 41.0 44.1 52.5 107.2 62.5 56.5 30.7 38.1 46.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 39.5 41.5 49.8 101.8 59.1 54.5 25.5 35.3 46.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 34.5 36.1 47.5 103.9 60.4 53.5 21.6 30.1 39.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 35.5 38.4 46.5 103.1 60.2 56.2 21.6 31.5 42.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 34.1 43.8 51.3 118.0 68.0 60.3 20.0 29.9 41.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 57.0 62.6 60.9 109.3 63.6 56.3 40.8 52.2 64.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 31.9 37.0 42.0 109.1 64.0 59.4 19.5 28.1 38.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------