***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 -0.1 0.1 0.3 2.2 73.3 72.4 -3.9 -2.3 -0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 0.5 1.0 0.9 3.2 80.4 79.6 -4.3 -2.5 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 1.7 1.8 0.2 2.4 73.8 73.2 -2.0 -0.4 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.2 -1.1 -0.9 4.1 92.2 91.7 -7.2 -5.8 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 0.4 0.9 -1.1 3.0 81.5 80.9 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -0.7 0.3 -2.5 3.8 85.2 84.9 -5.4 -3.7 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 0.6 1.0 0.9 3.2 80.7 79.7 -4.3 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 -4.8 -4.6 -2.2 3.3 79.0 78.6 -9.0 -7.5 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 0.8 0.9 -0.9 2.4 76.0 75.4 -3.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 0.4 0.4 -1.7 2.9 76.8 76.3 -4.2 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 0.5 0.8 -1.6 2.9 79.4 78.9 -4.5 -2.7 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 -0.2 -0.2 -2.0 2.9 77.5 77.1 -5.2 -3.3 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 0.1 0.1 -2.2 2.8 75.9 75.6 -4.8 -2.9 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 0.6 0.5 -0.8 2.6 72.9 72.5 -3.1 -1.6 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 -0.8 1.8 0.4 4.4 94.7 94.0 -4.6 -3.2 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 0.7 0.9 -2.1 2.9 79.0 78.7 -3.5 -1.9 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 0.0 0.7 1.1 3.5 82.5 81.6 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 -1.6 -1.8 -2.2 3.2 75.7 75.3 -6.1 -4.4 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 0.6 0.9 0.6 3.0 78.4 77.6 -4.1 -2.3 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 -3.2 -3.0 -3.2 3.4 77.8 77.3 -9.3 -7.0 -4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 0.6 0.9 0.0 2.4 75.6 74.8 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.2 79.5 78.8 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 0.1 0.0 -0.1 2.4 74.4 73.9 -4.1 -2.5 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 0.0 -0.1 -1.1 2.7 74.3 73.9 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 0.1 0.7 -0.3 3.0 82.8 82.0 -3.6 -2.2 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 -0.1 0.5 -1.5 3.5 81.5 80.9 -4.9 -3.1 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 1.4 1.6 0.0 2.5 76.5 75.8 -3.5 -1.6 0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -1.5 0.2 -0.5 4.1 91.3 90.9 -5.1 -3.8 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 -2.0 -1.9 -2.8 3.5 78.0 77.6 -6.4 -4.7 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 0.8 1.1 0.7 2.9 78.0 77.2 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------