***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -1.9 -1.6 0.5 57.5 55.9 -3.5 -2.4 -1.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -2.1 -1.6 0.8 60.9 59.2 -4.3 -2.9 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 -0.4 -0.3 -1.9 0.4 56.8 55.5 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -5.3 -4.7 -4.3 0.9 64.1 60.2 -7.1 -5.8 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -2.6 -4.0 0.6 58.4 56.2 -4.3 -3.1 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -3.8 -3.2 -5.2 1.0 64.0 60.6 -5.3 -4.2 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -1.9 -1.5 0.8 61.4 59.7 -4.2 -2.8 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -7.0 -6.8 -4.9 0.8 60.1 57.7 -8.2 -7.3 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -2.0 -3.2 0.4 55.4 54.2 -3.6 -2.4 -1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -2.6 -4.3 0.6 57.4 55.5 -4.3 -3.1 -2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -2.7 -4.2 0.6 58.7 56.6 -4.6 -3.3 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -3.6 -3.4 -4.5 0.7 59.3 57.4 -5.4 -4.1 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 -3.1 -2.9 -4.7 0.7 59.3 57.4 -5.0 -3.6 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -1.9 -3.5 0.2 53.3 52.9 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -1.9 -3.5 1.0 66.3 62.3 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -1.9 -4.7 0.7 59.4 57.2 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 -1.8 -2.2 -1.4 0.9 62.1 60.4 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -4.8 -4.6 -5.0 0.6 57.6 55.4 -6.5 -5.2 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -2.1 -1.8 0.7 59.3 57.9 -4.0 -2.7 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -7.5 -6.9 -6.0 0.8 61.4 57.9 -9.5 -7.9 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.1 -2.3 0.4 56.6 55.0 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 -2.7 -2.4 -1.6 0.8 60.3 58.9 -4.4 -3.2 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 -2.5 -2.5 -2.3 0.4 56.0 55.3 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -2.5 -2.6 -3.6 0.4 55.6 54.2 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -2.0 -3.3 0.6 60.5 57.7 -3.8 -2.7 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -3.1 -2.7 -4.3 0.8 62.1 59.7 -4.8 -3.6 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -1.6 -2.4 0.6 58.9 57.0 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -3.6 -3.1 -4.0 0.9 64.5 60.7 -5.3 -4.1 -3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 -4.6 -4.3 -5.5 0.7 59.7 56.8 -6.1 -5.0 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 0.7 59.8 58.1 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------