***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.9 3.1 -0.6 43.8 45.0 1.5 3.6 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.0 2.6 2.8 -0.7 42.6 44.0 1.5 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.0 3.1 -0.7 42.3 43.8 2.7 5.0 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -1.6 0.7 1.4 -0.1 49.2 49.1 -1.3 0.8 2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.2 1.8 -0.4 45.8 46.7 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.0 1.2 -0.4 46.1 47.6 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.3 2.7 -0.6 42.9 44.3 1.1 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -3.1 -1.8 1.2 -0.7 42.2 44.6 -2.7 -1.2 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.5 2.4 -0.7 42.6 44.4 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.6 1.7 -0.9 40.5 43.2 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.3 1.8 -0.3 46.3 47.2 2.6 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.8 1.7 -0.3 46.5 47.6 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.4 1.4 -0.3 46.9 48.1 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.8 2.2 -1.3 36.9 40.0 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.6 4.2 1.9 0.2 52.7 51.8 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.2 1.6 -0.2 47.9 48.5 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.8 2.2 2.7 -0.7 42.9 44.0 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.6 1.2 -1.3 36.2 40.1 1.2 2.9 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.2 3.0 2.9 -0.7 42.1 43.6 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -1.4 -0.2 -0.2 -1.2 36.3 40.7 -0.7 1.4 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.1 4.1 2.8 -0.6 43.4 44.7 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.4 2.9 2.8 -0.7 42.1 43.4 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.8 2.9 -0.9 40.8 42.7 1.9 3.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.1 2.3 -1.2 37.9 40.8 3.4 5.8 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.1 3.0 1.8 -0.4 44.8 45.8 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.1 1.3 -0.2 48.0 49.2 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.0 4.1 2.4 -0.5 43.8 45.1 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.2 1.8 0.1 51.1 50.6 2.8 5.1 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -0.7 0.1 0.5 -1.4 34.8 39.4 -0.1 2.0 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 0.8 2.5 2.9 -0.7 42.7 44.2 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------