***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.2 3.2 2.3 -0.7 41.7 43.6 2.0 4.4 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 0.1 2.6 2.3 -0.7 42.7 44.7 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 1.3 3.8 2.5 -0.7 42.3 44.0 2.3 4.9 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -2.3 -0.2 0.5 -0.6 42.5 45.1 -1.4 0.7 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.0 3.4 1.1 -0.6 43.0 44.8 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.0 3.4 0.7 -0.4 45.1 46.1 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 0.0 2.3 2.2 -0.6 42.8 44.9 0.9 3.2 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -2.1 -0.8 1.0 -0.6 43.2 44.8 -1.7 -0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.4 1.9 -0.6 43.0 44.6 2.8 5.5 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 1.3 3.4 1.5 -0.6 43.0 44.6 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 1.3 3.7 1.1 -0.6 43.5 44.9 2.1 4.6 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.2 1.1 -0.6 43.6 44.8 2.6 5.1 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 1.3 3.7 0.8 -0.5 44.1 45.0 2.1 4.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.3 2.3 -0.7 43.0 44.4 2.7 5.4 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.7 3.0 0.8 -0.6 42.4 45.4 1.6 4.0 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.3 0.9 -0.5 44.2 45.3 2.6 5.1 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 0.0 2.4 2.3 -0.5 44.3 46.0 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 0.2 1.8 1.5 -0.7 43.3 44.7 0.7 2.5 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 0.3 2.9 2.4 -0.7 42.8 44.6 1.4 4.0 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.9 0.9 0.2 -0.6 43.2 45.2 -0.4 1.7 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 1.4 3.9 2.2 -0.7 42.7 44.3 2.4 5.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 0.4 3.1 2.5 -0.5 44.4 45.9 1.4 3.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 0.3 2.7 2.6 -0.7 43.1 44.5 1.2 3.6 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.5 5.0 2.3 -0.7 43.1 44.5 3.4 6.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 0.6 2.6 1.0 -0.7 41.6 43.9 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.5 0.6 -0.5 44.4 45.4 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.4 1.7 -0.7 41.8 43.7 2.1 4.6 7.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.5 4.0 0.8 -0.5 43.4 45.7 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.9 0.9 -0.7 43.2 44.9 0.6 2.8 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 0.1 2.4 2.3 -0.7 42.2 44.2 1.0 3.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------