***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.4 4.1 1.1 61.2 57.3 2.5 4.3 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.0 4.5 3.8 1.0 60.4 56.8 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.9 4.3 1.0 60.9 57.0 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.3 1.4 2.0 0.8 58.3 56.3 -1.8 0.4 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.5 2.7 0.9 59.5 56.8 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.3 2.3 1.0 60.8 57.2 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.7 4.2 3.8 1.1 61.3 57.6 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.9 1.2 2.5 0.9 60.6 57.3 -1.4 0.2 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.6 3.6 1.0 60.7 57.2 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.2 5.6 3.2 1.1 61.4 57.8 2.5 4.4 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.6 2.7 0.9 59.8 57.0 2.7 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.1 2.5 0.8 59.4 56.4 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.4 2.3 0.8 59.6 56.4 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.0 4.2 1.4 63.8 59.2 2.7 5.1 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.2 2.1 0.7 57.5 55.6 2.1 4.2 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.8 6.0 2.4 0.9 59.9 57.0 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.7 4.0 3.7 1.1 61.0 57.3 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.9 3.3 1.3 63.6 59.3 1.1 2.7 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.3 4.8 4.0 1.0 60.4 56.8 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.7 2.7 1.8 1.2 62.9 59.1 -0.4 1.4 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.0 3.9 1.0 60.6 57.0 2.9 4.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.8 3.9 1.1 60.8 57.0 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.2 4.8 4.3 1.1 61.3 57.4 1.6 3.5 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.2 4.1 1.3 63.1 58.7 3.3 5.5 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.9 2.8 1.0 60.8 57.3 2.1 3.8 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.2 2.1 0.7 58.9 56.0 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.5 3.6 1.1 61.9 57.8 2.3 4.2 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.9 2.2 0.7 58.1 56.1 2.5 4.8 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.3 4.0 2.8 1.3 64.0 59.7 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.9 4.4 3.9 1.0 60.5 56.9 1.2 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------