***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.5 5.1 4.0 0.8 62.7 58.9 2.7 4.0 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.5 3.9 0.9 62.8 59.8 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.0 4.2 0.9 62.3 58.7 3.5 5.0 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.0 2.1 2.3 1.2 70.2 64.5 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.9 2.9 1.0 66.5 61.6 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.6 5.3 2.2 0.9 65.2 60.8 2.9 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.7 4.2 3.8 1.0 63.3 60.3 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.3 0.2 2.5 0.9 64.5 60.0 -1.5 -0.6 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.7 3.7 1.0 64.9 60.3 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.6 3.1 0.9 63.6 59.3 3.1 4.5 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.2 6.2 2.9 1.0 66.7 62.0 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.6 6.4 2.7 0.9 65.2 60.6 3.7 5.1 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.8 2.5 0.9 64.9 60.4 3.1 4.6 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.4 4.0 0.8 60.7 57.4 3.8 5.4 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 5.7 6.3 3.0 1.5 75.5 69.1 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.6 2.5 1.0 65.7 61.1 3.7 5.2 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.5 4.2 3.9 1.0 64.1 61.0 1.6 3.0 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.4 2.9 0.6 59.5 55.9 1.7 2.8 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.5 5.0 4.0 0.9 62.2 59.2 2.5 4.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.6 60.6 56.4 0.3 1.5 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.2 4.0 1.0 65.1 60.5 3.5 5.0 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.8 4.0 1.0 63.2 60.2 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.7 4.2 0.8 61.5 58.4 2.4 3.8 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.7 3.8 0.7 60.7 57.2 4.1 5.7 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.9 2.9 1.0 66.4 61.4 2.4 3.7 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.3 2.2 0.9 66.0 61.3 3.0 4.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.8 3.4 0.9 63.5 59.5 3.1 4.6 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.8 2.7 1.3 71.8 66.1 3.1 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.9 2.3 0.6 59.7 55.8 0.9 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.5 4.0 0.9 62.2 59.1 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------