***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.4 3.9 6.7 56.0 34.7 31.6 3.6 7.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 8.4 8.5 78.9 51.2 43.5 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.4 6.2 6.5 56.7 34.4 31.5 5.8 10.1 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 4.2 3.8 5.6 43.3 22.0 22.0 5.8 9.7 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 3.8 2.5 5.1 39.0 16.3 18.5 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 4.1 2.9 4.1 37.1 20.6 20.5 5.1 8.9 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.5 7.8 8.5 77.3 49.9 43.3 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 6.8 5.9 5.6 42.0 21.9 22.5 8.5 13.1 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 2.3 1.3 5.1 39.0 16.7 19.0 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 4.0 2.9 5.5 40.6 19.3 20.8 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 4.1 2.7 4.7 38.0 17.8 19.2 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 4.3 3.4 4.8 39.3 19.8 20.7 5.9 9.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 3.8 2.2 4.3 34.9 15.7 18.0 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.8 9.4 8.3 65.7 41.6 36.6 7.2 11.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 2.8 3.2 5.3 46.2 31.4 27.2 3.5 7.9 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 3.3 2.1 4.4 36.7 17.0 18.5 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.8 9.1 83.2 54.5 46.4 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.2 3.4 6.3 44.7 24.2 24.3 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.2 8.7 8.4 77.5 50.0 42.6 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.8 5.9 8.3 51.0 30.6 29.1 6.3 10.4 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 3.5 3.0 5.4 43.3 21.6 22.1 4.9 8.6 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.2 10.5 10.0 90.5 57.9 48.5 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.7 6.9 8.1 72.9 46.4 40.2 4.4 7.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.4 4.3 6.5 50.7 29.3 27.9 5.0 8.8 13.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 4.6 4.4 7.0 49.7 26.5 25.8 5.7 10.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 3.2 2.3 4.2 35.6 18.2 19.0 4.5 8.0 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.4 5.2 7.8 58.8 35.7 32.5 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 3.2 2.8 4.8 41.2 24.1 22.5 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.9 7.4 7.3 49.9 28.4 27.5 8.7 14.0 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.8 7.2 7.8 71.3 45.8 39.6 4.5 8.2 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------