***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.9 8.6 91.1 59.1 45.2 2.2 3.8 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.7 8.3 93.1 60.5 48.3 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.2 8.8 91.8 59.8 46.9 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 8.4 10.2 98.3 62.7 46.9 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.8 10.2 96.1 61.5 46.8 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.6 8.2 10.4 99.3 63.3 48.8 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.5 6.4 8.2 90.0 58.9 46.7 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.7 11.1 11.3 103.8 64.1 50.4 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.4 10.5 94.3 60.3 46.5 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.5 11.2 98.0 61.7 48.4 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.7 9.6 95.2 61.3 47.6 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.5 8.7 9.9 100.7 63.3 49.5 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.3 8.1 10.0 98.7 62.7 49.1 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.4 10.7 97.3 61.4 49.8 4.6 7.7 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.5 8.1 9.9 99.9 64.2 47.5 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.5 9.5 96.3 62.1 48.2 1.7 3.9 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.7 8.4 93.8 61.0 48.0 3.1 5.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.5 7.2 12.3 100.2 62.6 49.8 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.4 8.4 94.9 61.2 48.9 3.2 5.4 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 11.9 15.0 112.3 67.2 53.6 3.1 6.4 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.2 9.7 92.4 59.5 45.4 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.9 8.7 96.6 62.2 50.0 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.8 8.9 97.1 61.8 49.4 3.3 5.7 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.2 10.6 95.1 60.6 48.3 3.6 6.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.3 10.2 95.0 61.1 46.5 2.9 5.2 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.6 10.0 103.2 64.2 50.0 1.9 4.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.4 9.5 92.2 59.7 46.0 2.1 4.0 6.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.1 6.8 9.9 98.1 63.2 47.4 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.9 11.7 13.2 104.0 64.1 51.2 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.1 8.3 92.0 59.9 47.8 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------