***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 31.5 29.7 39.0 96.1 55.2 49.9 17.7 26.7 37.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 31.7 33.0 38.5 101.9 59.4 54.0 19.0 27.6 37.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 41.9 42.3 40.4 101.3 58.4 52.1 26.7 36.6 48.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 42.5 40.7 42.9 97.9 56.2 50.4 26.4 36.6 48.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 43.4 42.4 43.6 99.0 56.5 50.8 29.1 38.5 49.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 35.5 32.6 39.9 95.4 53.5 49.3 21.3 30.6 41.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 33.3 32.8 37.6 98.3 57.1 52.3 19.1 28.3 39.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 55.0 56.8 47.6 104.4 59.9 54.0 38.1 49.3 61.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 31.5 30.7 45.2 99.5 56.5 51.0 19.0 27.1 36.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 39.2 39.6 48.2 103.1 59.0 53.0 25.2 34.2 44.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 25.7 38.7 41.7 100.1 57.1 51.6 25.9 34.7 44.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 39.0 38.1 41.3 100.9 57.5 52.1 22.5 32.8 44.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 25.2 36.5 40.1 94.9 52.6 48.7 25.5 34.8 45.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 50.5 56.2 50.7 111.3 64.9 57.4 34.7 45.3 57.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 35.5 33.9 41.1 97.6 57.2 50.9 16.0 27.7 42.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 36.5 34.3 39.5 96.8 54.6 50.0 22.9 31.6 41.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 31.7 32.3 37.6 100.0 58.5 53.9 18.2 27.1 37.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 35.4 37.9 53.3 106.5 61.6 55.0 22.3 31.0 41.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 34.5 37.6 39.9 105.5 61.5 55.3 21.6 30.5 40.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 43.4 48.2 62.8 109.7 63.9 57.4 28.9 38.8 49.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 37.6 36.2 42.1 97.9 55.6 49.9 24.5 33.1 42.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 33.4 36.0 40.5 105.3 61.5 56.3 20.3 29.1 39.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 32.4 36.3 42.7 110.0 64.0 56.7 21.1 28.9 37.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 42.2 44.2 48.3 106.4 61.5 54.6 30.6 38.4 46.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 41.0 38.8 44.6 96.1 54.7 49.3 25.6 35.8 47.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 20.4 30.8 39.6 96.1 53.4 49.8 20.2 28.9 39.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 36.5 34.8 42.7 96.0 55.0 49.8 21.6 31.5 43.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 35.5 33.6 40.5 97.1 56.1 50.5 19.2 29.3 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 58.5 63.8 57.6 109.1 63.4 56.6 40.7 52.9 66.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 32.4 32.9 38.4 100.3 58.1 52.6 19.1 27.9 38.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------