***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9999.0 0.1 -0.2 2.2 79.5 77.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 -1.0 -0.4 -0.6 2.2 78.7 76.7 -4.3 -2.9 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 0.8 1.4 -0.6 2.2 79.4 77.1 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 -3.9 -3.0 -3.2 2.4 83.2 80.3 -7.1 -5.8 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 -1.4 -0.8 -2.7 2.3 81.2 78.5 -4.3 -3.1 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 -2.5 -1.6 -3.9 2.5 83.6 80.4 -5.3 -4.2 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 -0.8 -0.3 -0.5 2.3 79.0 77.0 -4.2 -2.8 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 -5.9 -5.2 -3.2 2.7 83.9 80.9 -8.2 -7.3 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 -0.6 0.1 -1.9 2.3 80.5 77.9 -3.7 -2.4 -1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 -1.4 -0.6 -2.8 2.5 82.1 79.2 -4.3 -3.1 -2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 -1.4 -0.6 -2.7 2.4 82.2 79.5 -4.7 -3.3 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 -2.3 -1.4 -2.9 2.5 82.3 79.6 -5.4 -4.1 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 -1.9 -1.1 -3.4 2.2 79.8 77.1 -5.0 -3.7 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 -0.5 0.1 -2.0 2.4 80.2 77.7 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 -1.2 -0.2 -2.6 2.4 83.3 80.7 -4.4 -3.1 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 -0.9 -0.2 -3.3 2.3 81.6 78.9 -3.7 -2.5 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 -1.4 -0.9 -0.5 2.2 78.0 76.2 -4.5 -3.2 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 -3.4 -2.6 -3.4 2.6 81.2 78.2 -6.5 -5.2 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 -0.9 -0.5 -0.8 2.1 78.0 76.0 -4.1 -2.8 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 -5.9 -4.9 -4.6 2.4 81.3 77.4 -9.5 -8.0 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 -0.9 -0.3 -1.0 2.2 79.3 76.8 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7 1.9 75.6 73.8 -4.5 -3.2 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 -1.3 -0.8 -1.2 2.0 77.7 75.6 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 -1.3 -0.6 -2.1 2.5 81.2 78.7 -4.2 -3.0 -1.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 -1.0 -0.1 -1.8 2.5 83.8 81.0 -3.8 -2.6 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 -1.9 -1.0 -3.0 2.3 82.1 79.4 -4.8 -3.6 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 -0.3 0.5 -1.0 2.3 80.6 78.2 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 -2.3 -1.5 -3.0 2.4 82.6 79.8 -5.3 -4.1 -2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 -3.4 -2.6 -3.9 2.6 82.3 78.8 -6.2 -5.0 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 -0.7 0.0 -0.5 2.2 79.0 76.9 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------