***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 7.5 6.5 4.0 85.2 84.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 6.8 7.7 6.1 3.9 84.0 83.3 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 8.5 9.5 6.5 3.9 83.7 83.0 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.1 73.4 72.4 -1.4 0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 7.6 8.3 4.3 3.3 81.0 80.0 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 7.1 8.8 5.2 4.5 88.5 87.4 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 6.5 7.6 6.1 3.9 84.7 84.0 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.3 2.4 5.1 4.1 86.4 85.8 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 8.9 10.1 5.7 3.8 84.5 83.5 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 8.2 9.5 5.7 4.1 85.5 84.8 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 8.2 9.3 4.9 3.7 83.5 82.5 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 8.1 9.5 5.1 4.0 86.0 85.3 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.0 9.8 6.0 4.6 88.4 87.7 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 9.0 10.3 7.2 4.5 84.9 84.1 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 5.3 5.6 2.6 1.9 73.9 72.8 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 8.5 9.8 4.9 3.9 84.9 83.7 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 6.2 7.2 5.9 3.8 84.4 83.7 1.2 3.0 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 6.1 7.1 6.0 4.3 85.0 84.4 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 7.4 8.3 6.1 3.8 82.9 82.1 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 4.6 6.2 4.8 4.4 87.0 86.5 -0.5 1.4 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 8.2 9.2 6.1 3.7 83.8 82.9 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 6.7 7.3 5.7 3.3 80.8 80.0 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 7.0 7.8 6.2 3.7 82.2 81.4 2.0 3.9 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 9.2 10.3 6.7 4.2 83.9 83.2 3.4 5.5 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 6.3 7.2 5.1 3.7 84.3 83.4 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 7.0 8.3 4.8 4.0 87.2 86.8 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 8.1 9.3 6.1 4.0 85.1 84.4 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 6.3 6.6 2.6 2.1 72.3 71.2 2.3 4.2 5.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 4.5 6.0 5.7 4.7 87.4 86.9 -0.3 1.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 6.9 7.8 6.3 4.0 84.2 83.6 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------