***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9999.0 6.7 5.8 2.8 78.4 75.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 6.0 6.6 5.5 2.8 77.2 74.9 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 8.1 8.9 5.9 2.8 77.4 74.7 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 3.6 4.5 3.5 2.4 77.9 75.4 -1.7 0.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 7.4 8.3 4.2 2.5 77.3 74.4 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 6.9 8.1 4.0 2.6 80.1 76.5 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 5.6 6.3 5.4 2.8 77.4 75.1 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 1.0 1.7 4.2 2.4 78.1 74.6 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 8.4 9.1 5.2 2.6 77.1 73.9 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 7.2 7.9 4.8 2.5 77.1 73.7 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 7.6 8.5 4.3 2.5 78.3 75.2 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 8.2 9.3 4.2 2.5 79.0 75.7 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 7.6 8.7 4.0 2.6 80.4 76.8 2.6 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 8.6 9.3 5.6 2.5 75.7 72.6 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 6.8 7.6 3.7 2.4 78.8 76.5 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 8.2 9.3 4.0 2.5 79.1 75.9 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 5.2 5.7 5.3 2.5 75.4 73.3 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 4.9 5.5 4.7 2.4 75.8 72.3 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 6.9 7.5 5.7 2.7 76.8 74.5 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 4.1 5.0 3.3 2.3 76.8 72.9 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 8.0 8.7 5.5 2.6 77.3 74.3 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.0 6.5 5.4 2.3 73.8 71.5 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 6.5 7.2 5.9 2.7 76.3 73.7 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 8.8 9.5 5.6 2.5 75.9 72.8 3.4 5.7 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 6.1 6.8 4.3 2.6 78.6 76.1 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 6.7 7.7 3.8 2.6 81.5 77.9 2.5 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 7.9 8.8 5.1 2.7 78.4 75.9 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 8.1 9.1 3.8 2.4 78.3 75.6 2.7 5.0 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 4.6 5.3 4.1 2.4 76.0 72.4 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 6.1 6.7 5.7 2.8 77.8 75.4 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------