***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 7.5 4.6 2.1 69.5 66.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 6.3 6.5 4.4 2.1 68.8 66.2 1.2 3.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 7.8 7.8 4.7 1.9 68.0 65.1 2.3 4.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 3.2 3.3 2.5 1.8 68.7 65.5 -1.1 1.0 2.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 7.1 6.9 3.0 1.7 67.0 63.8 2.0 4.5 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.1 2.4 1.5 66.0 62.5 1.9 4.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 5.8 6.0 4.3 2.1 69.2 66.6 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 1.6 1.3 2.6 1.3 64.7 62.0 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 8.6 8.0 3.8 1.6 66.2 63.0 2.8 5.5 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.4 3.2 1.4 64.7 61.9 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.1 2.9 1.5 66.2 63.2 2.2 4.7 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.9 7.4 2.9 1.5 66.1 63.2 2.5 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 7.3 6.9 2.6 1.5 67.1 63.7 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 8.7 8.0 4.1 1.6 65.3 62.8 2.7 5.5 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.9 2.8 1.8 69.2 66.2 1.8 4.2 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.0 7.7 2.7 1.6 67.1 63.8 2.6 5.1 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 5.5 5.7 4.3 2.0 68.4 65.8 0.8 3.1 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 4.8 4.1 3.1 1.3 63.9 61.4 0.8 2.6 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 6.8 7.0 4.6 2.0 68.2 65.6 1.4 4.1 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 4.0 3.3 1.7 1.2 63.4 61.1 -0.4 1.7 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 7.8 7.6 4.3 1.8 67.4 64.1 2.5 5.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.6 6.5 4.4 1.9 67.1 64.7 1.4 3.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.4 6.2 4.6 1.9 67.2 64.6 1.2 3.7 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 9.2 8.5 4.1 1.6 65.3 62.6 3.4 6.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.4 3.2 1.9 69.5 65.9 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.2 2.5 1.5 67.6 64.2 2.2 4.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.6 4.0 2.0 69.5 66.1 2.1 4.6 7.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.7 2.8 1.8 68.5 65.3 2.6 5.1 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 5.4 4.7 2.6 1.3 63.8 61.4 0.7 2.9 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.4 4.6 2.1 69.0 66.3 1.1 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------