***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 9999.0 5.2 6.3 44.7 30.3 25.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.5 5.8 6.8 54.9 38.3 33.0 4.8 8.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 4.8 5.4 6.5 46.0 29.0 25.5 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.9 6.4 7.8 53.4 34.9 30.9 6.0 9.9 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 4.6 4.4 6.5 44.4 24.4 23.4 6.1 10.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 3.3 3.0 4.9 40.4 23.8 22.6 4.5 8.3 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.8 5.5 6.8 57.1 40.6 34.1 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 6.6 7.2 7.2 51.1 28.9 27.1 8.2 12.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 2.6 2.4 6.3 42.7 24.7 23.6 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 3.6 3.5 6.8 46.3 26.2 25.3 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 3.4 3.1 5.7 43.5 23.9 23.5 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 4.0 3.9 5.7 45.6 24.9 24.3 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 3.2 2.8 5.3 40.9 22.5 22.1 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.7 6.4 7.7 48.6 30.5 28.0 6.9 11.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.8 7.3 9.4 68.9 48.1 42.7 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 2.8 2.5 5.4 42.0 22.4 22.2 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.2 7.0 7.7 69.0 48.0 40.4 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.5 3.4 7.8 49.4 28.4 27.3 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.7 6.8 51.7 35.2 30.9 4.4 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 4.7 6.9 12.0 66.5 40.0 34.3 5.3 9.5 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 3.6 3.9 6.4 43.8 27.1 24.4 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.1 7.7 8.2 67.1 46.5 40.3 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.5 3.5 6.8 48.7 31.2 28.1 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 4.7 4.6 7.1 46.5 28.3 26.3 5.5 9.2 14.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 4.5 5.0 7.0 45.0 28.7 25.3 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 2.9 2.9 6.1 48.0 26.8 25.2 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 3.6 4.1 6.6 44.6 29.7 25.5 4.7 8.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.2 5.7 7.8 58.7 38.8 34.9 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 7.2 8.1 9.0 54.9 32.0 29.9 8.3 13.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.8 4.5 6.5 49.8 33.6 29.0 4.4 8.0 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------